Let the weather watch begin.
With less than a week before the start of the big-game season, the eternal question remains: Will there be sufficient snow to closely congregate Colorado’s deer and elk with the hunters who pursue them?
For those fortunate to draw a limited bull elk license for the five-day session that begins Saturday, the answer is a resounding negative. Weather rarely becomes an issue for a mid-October hunt that typically features more golden aspen leaves than snowflakes. Should storm clouds gather, the resulting snowfall seldom is sufficient to prompt dramatic migration.
That’s the bet for those who choose one of the three later sessions, the flip side of a gambling game that tells us much about ourselves and how we prefer to hunt.
A pleasant stroll through a golden autumn with little competition in the field? Or a frosty free-for-all with good tracking snow and animals concentrated down low?
Most elk hunters opt for the nine-day second session beginning Oct. 21 or the seven-day hunt that starts Nov. 4. These afford the most time in the field when over-the-counter bull licenses become available in the most-popular western Colorado game-management units.
A shorter finale, Nov. 15-19, attracts those hardy souls who are truly serious about their hunting weather. In marked contrast to the relaxed tone of the first elk season, these later periods are marked by busy campgrounds and a sense of raw urgency.
Deer hunters chime in for that second, busiest segment, sprinkling the forest with bright splotches of orange.
Colorado Division of Wildlife biologists are unanimous in proclaiming this a banner year for deer. Given the proper conditions – that weather thing again – those lucky to draw a buck tag might even improve on the 2005 standard of nearly 50-percent success.
The ratio of mature bucks continues to climb following a 1999 decision to limit the number of deer licenses in an effort to arrest a disturbing population decline. Colorado since has earned a reputation as a destination for trophy deer hunters in places such as the Gunnison Basin and much of the San Juan National Forest.
Why hunters choose one period over another speaks volumes about the individual psyche, of ingrained perceptions for success and a myriad other considerations that include connections with friends and relatives.
Yet when all these decisions finally filter through the forest, the prospects for venison in the freezer generally are governed by two broad elements that have little to do with such fine-tuned choices. Foremost is that matter of moisture.
When good hunting weather arrives for those later seasons when most hunters are in field, we get a banner harvest, particularly for elk.
When conditions remain warm and dry, as was the case for the balmy hunt of 2005, prospects plummet. From a record 63,336 elk taken in 2004, last year’s total plummeted to 56,462.
This brings us to the second consideration, that peak-to-valley syndrome that typically follows a season of success. The logic and math are simple enough: Shoot lots of animals one year and there are fewer out there for the next.
If the pattern holds, 2006 promises bull elk success, with considerably more 3- and 4-year-old animals in the herd.
But don’t expect a record elk harvest this year, perhaps not ever again. With the statewide population approaching the target number, wildlife managers reduced the number of cow tags, a trend that will deepen over the next few years.
Colorado hunters bagged an average of 30,000 cows since the turn of the century. Expect that number to decline soon by half, perhaps even more.
These are the things that biologists can predict, given an ample choice of management tools. But nobody can tell about the weather. Not now, maybe not ever.
Charlie Meyers can be reached at 303-954-1609 or cmeyers@denverpost.com.
