Washington – Families using natural gas can expect their heating bills to drop about $119 this winter. Those who heat with oil or electricity are likely to see their bills rise.
The government issued predictions Tuesday based on its forecast of a mild winter for most of the nation and its assessment of energy supplies and costs as the nation’s oil and natural-gas production and refinery output recover from hurricane damage in 2005.
“This is a very different scene than we had a year ago in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,” said Guy Caruso, head of the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical agency.
The hurricanes knocked out 20 percent of the nation’s gas production, severely damaged Gulf Coast gas-processing facilities and shut more than a dozen refineries, an impact “we’re only now recovering from,” Caruso said.
“The greatest beneficiaries will be those who use natural gas because prices went up 29 percent last year” and have since fallen back, he said. Natural-gas stockpiles are expected to be near capacity by Nov. 1.
The Energy Department forecast that the average household using natural gas will pay $826 for home heating this winter, down $119, or 12.5 percent, from last winter.
Natural gas is the largest source of home heating in the United States – the primary fuel for 58 percent of all households, including almost four of every five in the Midwest.
A third of U.S. households rely on electricity as their primary heating fuel. The government estimates they are expected to pay an average of $839 for heat this winter, up $58, or 7.4 percent, from last winter. Electric heat is most prevalent in the South, where 52 percent of households use it.
Fuel-oil users can expect to pay $1,522 on average this winter, up $91, or 6.3 percent, from last winter.
Households that rely primarily on propane are expected to pay an average of $1,265 this winter, down $15, or 1.1 percent, from last year. Propane is the primary heat source for 5 percent of U.S. households.
In Colorado, customers of Xcel Energy may get a break on their winter heating bills.
Xcel forecasts that lower natural-gas prices will result in heating bills that could be 13 percent to 14 percent lower this winter than last year.
Although the utility noted that several factors could affect its forecast, it now expects the average December residential heating bill to be $135, compared with $157 last December, not including electricity.
Typical small-business owners are expected to pay $622 for their December heat, compared with $713 the previous year.
Denver Post staff writer Steve Raabe contributed to this report.
