Knoxville, Tenn. – If West Virginia could score nearly every time it hung on to the ball against Louisville, what will Ohio State’s Troy Smith do to the Cardinals? What would Ohio State’s latest output from its linebacker factory do to quarterback Brian Brohm and Louisville’s mediocre running attack?
We could find out Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz. Thursday’s 44-34 victory over West Virginia on Thursday puts Louisville (8-0) in prime position to reach the Bowl Championship Series title game against the top-ranked Buckeyes (10-0).
Four weeks remain in the season, a perfect time to walk out on the limb for some BCS bowl predictions. Then again, watch the branch break when Louisville, daydreaming of a title-game date in Arizona, walks into Rutgers (8-0) on Thursday and stumbles over its own margarita glass.
But for now, if form holds (i.e. the favorites win out), Louisville and Ohio State should play for the national title. The Cardinals jumped into third in Sunday’s BCS rankings from No. 5 last week, leapfrogging Florida (8-1), which struggled for the second straight week in a 25-19 win at unranked Vanderbilt (4-6) and remains anchored at No. 4.
BCS officials must hope Louisville wins Thursday. A Rutgers win would likely put Florida (8-1) in the title game if it beats South Carolina (5-4) and I-AA Western Carolina at home, Florida State (5-4) on the road and wins the Southeastern Conference title game. That could leave Rutgers on the outside looking in Jan. 8, another undefeated team shunned by the BCS system. Simply put, Thursday’s game is Rutgers’ biggest game since facing Princeton (the first college football game) in 1869.
Here’s a look at the five BCS bowl games. Consider it all written in pencil:
Rose Bowl, Jan. 1, Pasadena, Calif. – Michigan vs. Southern California: I’m betting Ohio State and USC (7-1) hold serve at home against Michigan (10-0) and California (8-1), respectively, on Nov. 18.
Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 1, Glendale, Ariz. – Boise State vs. Texas: Boston College’s loss at Wake Forest puts Boise State (9-0) four spots ahead of Georgia Tech, the top-rated ACC team, in the BCS standings. To qualify for a BCS bowl, schools from non-BCS conferences must finish in the top 16 and ahead of a champion from a BCS conference or finish in the top 12. At No. 14, the Broncos are two spots away from that mark.
Orange Bowl, Jan. 2, Miami – Georgia Tech vs. West Virginia: The moribund Atlantic Coast Conference gets a bid only because it must. I’m thinking Arkansas (8-1) can’t survive Tennessee (7-2) and Louisiana State (7-2) in the SEC, and the Mountaineers will be the best one-loss at-large team left.
Sugar Bowl, Jan. 3, New Orleans – Notre Dame vs. Florida: The Irish (8-1) are a lock for New Orleans. Florida will beat Arkansas or get revenge on Auburn (9-1) in the SEC title game.
BCS Championship, Jan. 8, Glendale, Ariz. – Louisville vs. Ohio State: After Rutgers, Louisville plays South Florida (6-3), at Pittsburgh (6-3) and Connecticut (3-5). Ohio State tunes up for Michigan at Northwestern (3-7) on Saturday.
Top teams struggle
OK, no more talk of taking it one game at a time. Ohio State and Michigan didn’t. The Buckeyes survived a horrible offensive performance in a 17-10 win over a 2-7 Illinois team, and No. 2 Michigan couldn’t stop Ball State, a bad team in a bad conference, in a 34-26 win.
Illinois held Ohio State to only 29 yards in the second half. Antonio Pittman stumbled to 58 yards on 32 carries, including 20 resulting in 2 yards or fewer.
“I think it’s a good thing for us,” Ohio State cornerback Malcolm Jenkins told reporters after the game. “It’s humbling. We come out (on) cloud nine. We’re back to reality.”
At least Ohio State played on the road. Michigan nearly lost at home to a 3-6 Mid-American Conference team that lost to I-AA North Dakota State. Michigan rolled up plenty of yards, but a safety, quarterback Chad Henne’s interception returned for a touchdown and two long Ball State passes leading to TDs put the Cardinals within eight points with 2:46 left from one of the biggest upsets in history.
The Wolverines would have only themselves to blame.
“Our minds were fading a little bit (in practice),” Henne admitted to reporters. “We executed our offense and our defense was playing well, but you could tell the guys were like, ‘this is going to be a blow over.”‘
Quinn catching Smith
Smith’s lock on the Heisman is slipping. That’s because Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn is quietly putting up spectacular numbers.
Playing one fewer game, Quinn has thrown for 2,579 yards to Smith’s 2,006 and has 25 TD passes to Smith’s 22. He has four interceptions on 64 percent passing, and Smith has three with 67 percent completions.
If Ohio State loses to Michigan and Notre Dame wins at USC the following week, look for Quinn to win the Heisman.
Footnotes
Dan McCarney’s 12-year reign at Iowa State (3-7, 0-6 Big 12) is about to come to a close. The Cyclones were booed much of the day in a 41-10 loss to Kansas. “(The fans) deserve better than what we gave them,” McCarney said….Think Colorado could use Colt Brennan right now? His numbers at Hawaii (7-2): 3,347 yards, 39 TDs, six interceptions, 73 percent passing. A junior, he redshirted at Colorado in 2003.
John Henderson can be reached at 303-954-1299 or jhenderson@denverpost.com.
