With two games to go, it seems appropriate to ask what ails Air Force’s once proficient scoring offense?
The Falcons are on schedule to achieve their lowest regular-season points-per-game average in nine football seasons, dating back to 1997, when Air Force averaged 22.2 points in 12 regular-season games. That team managed to overcome its low productivity, holding six opponents to 10 points or less in finishing 10-2 before losing 41-13 to Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl.
Heading into tonight’s Mountain West Conference game at Nevada-Las Vegas, the Falcons have averaged 22.6 points in 10 games and stand 4-6 with little hope of a bowl game.
Coach Fisher DeBerry says the downturn in scoring offense isn’t because opponents – and especially conference opponents – have caught up with the triple option system.
“There’s no question that when it’s effectively run and we take advantage of opportunities and do the required techniques, there’s nothing wrong with our system,” DeBerry says.
Offensive coordinator Chuck Petersen contends that it’s not the game plan.
But he also admits that, in his 17 seasons on the Air Force staff, he can’t remember another season in which the Falcons were held scoreless three times in the first half, as they were this year.
“We may not have quite the big-play capability that we’ve had at times in the past, but it’s our lack of execution at times and not the game plan,” Petersen said. “I don’t think there’s any question that our opponents worry about what we do on offense.”
Quarterback Shaun Carney has directed Air Force’s offense for three seasons. In his freshman year in 2004, the Falcons averaged 29.6 points, with Carney starting eight of the 10 games he played. Last year, Carney started 10 of 11 games and the scoring average was 30 points a game.
Carney wonders if fewer possessions because of new clock rules could be the culprit. As for the play calling, he says he follows orders.
“Give credit to the teams we’ve been playing,” Carney said. “They’ve been defending the option better than we’ve been running it the last couple of weeks.”
Air Force lost 39-17 to Notre Dame two weeks ago and 17-14 to Mountain West Conference rival Utah last Saturday.
Carney questions whether the option offense still gives AFA an advantage, even if opponents rarely face it and usually have only three days to prepare for it.
“When we’re playing teams that have played it before, that advantage is gone altogether,” Carney said. “We just have to be a lot more efficient in getting the ball into the end zone and not leaving it up to our special teams.”
Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, whose defense limited Air Force to 116 yards rushing, has an opinion. He believes the new clock rules have cut about three points a game off the scoring.
“If a team is not productive certain years, my guess is it’s personnel,” Whittingham said. “Recruiting is 80 percent of any program. Players win games.
“Air Force still gives us fits. Our success was partly due to the familiarity we have with their scheme, but it’s the ultimate chess match when you play them.”
DeBerry has to wrestle with the math. He noted the Falcons have lost three games by a total of five points, claiming that a 19-12 loss to San Diego State should have been by one point because the Aztecs scored a consolation touchdown on a fumbled lateral on a kickoff that ended the game.
“We could have and should have won all three of them,” DeBerry said.
GAME BREAKDOWN
Players to watch
Air Force: Quarterback Shaun Carney rushed for 83 yards and four touchdowns in last year’s 42-7 Air Force victory over the Rebels. Carney has seven rushing touchdowns in 10 games this year. Carney needs 63 yards to reach 1,000 passing yards for the season.
Nevada-Las Vegas: Quarterback Rocky Hinds needs 203 passing yards to reach 2000 for the season. His targets have been receivers Casey Flair and Ryan Wolfe, Flair with 59 catches for 716 yards and three touchdowns and Wolfe with 49 catches, 803 yards and five touchdowns.
Key stat
22: Rushing touchdowns allowed by UNLV’s defense.
Key for Air Force
The Falcons have been plagued by poor first-quarter performances, being outscored 51-31 in the first 15 minutes.
Key for UNLV
Third downs could decide things. The Rebels are converting 29 percent of their chances, while opponents are converting 41 percent of the time.
Staff writer Irv Moss can be reached at 303-954-1296 or imoss@denverpost.com.
