Kyle Johnson just might be the smartest of Broncos.
The fullback not only graduated from Syracuse with his bachelor’s degree, he made the university’s athletic honor roll nine times.
And despite his enormous time commitments in the NFL workforce, Johnson is more than halfway finished with his MBA program.
Yet not even Johnson fully grasps the NFL’s complex playoff tiebreaker formulas.
“All we can worry about is what’s expected of you,” Johnson said. “We know we’ve got to win out.”
Smart guy, that Johnson. The wild-card playoff tiebreaker formula can involve conference records, division exceptions, head-to-head matchups, common opponents, strength of victory, strength of schedule and enough silliness to make the BCS system seem brilliantly simple by comparison.
But here’s all Broncoland needs to know for now: If Denver wins its final three games and Kansas City loses once, the Broncos will be in the AFC playoffs as a wild-card team.
There are a couple of other scenarios in which the Broncos can get in, but the Elias Sports Bureau confirmed nothing would penetrate the playoff security of Denver winning out and the Chiefs stumbling once.
Winning out may be the toughest part of this whole deal, especially for a Broncos team coming off four consecutive losses.
“So many changes have happened since our last win,” said Keith Burns, the Broncos’ special-teams captain. “But once we get that next win, I think we can avalanche it from there.”
Three more wins by both the Broncos and Chiefs would leave each with 10-6 records. If one other team finishes 10-6, the Broncos would be out because they would have a worse record within the AFC West Division than the Chiefs.
So because a tie would go to the Chiefs, step one for the Broncos is to make sure they don’t finish tied with the Chiefs. Kansas City has road games at San Diego and Oakland, followed by a season-finale home game against Jacksonville, so there may be a greater chance at one more loss than three consecutive wins.
Still, until the Chiefs factor disappears, any suggestion the Broncos are in control of their destiny would be inaccurate.
“Now it’s at the point where you have to depend on somebody, and that’s why we’re all so cranky,” Broncos defensive end Kenard Lang said. “But if you win them all, then eventually you probably won’t have to depend on anybody.”
One plausible scenario has Broncos claiming the AFC’s No. 6, and final, playoff seed with a 9-7 record. This likely would require the 8-5 Cincinnati Bengals to lose this Sunday at Indianapolis and Dec. 24 against the Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High.
But the more teams, other than their opponents, the Broncos are counting on to lose, the more likely their season will end Dec. 31 with their game against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Broncos’ three remaining games: Sunday at Arizona (4-9), then home games Christmas Eve against the Bengals (8-5) and New Year’s Eve against the 49ers (5-8). Arizona and San Francisco might not be the pushovers they appeared to be earlier this season.
Given their predicament, the Broncos are fortunate they get to meet the Bengals at home. The Broncos may be one game behind Cincinnati for a wild-card playoff spot, but winning that head-to-head matchup could even the records and would give them the tiebreaker.
“It’s going to be a grueling stretch to the playoffs, but we’re going to get there,” Broncos defensive tackle Gerard Warren said. “Don’t give up on us. Got to win out. Two of three won’t do it. Dang sure didn’t want to be in this situation, but you’ve got to deal with it.”
Footnotes
As a Broncos tight end who caught two touchdown passes last week, rookie Tony Scheffler was a fantasy league dream – and nightmare. “After the game, I got 10 voice mails from buddies,” Scheffler said. “I guess they all had me inactive on their fantasy rosters. They all said: ‘You could have told me. I would have played you.”‘ Scheffler found humor in their frustration, because the former Western Michigan slugger plays fantasy baseball. …
Broncos special teams got a boost last Sunday from Hamza Abdullah, who delivered a big-time hit on San Diego punt returner Eric Parker, and forced kick returner Antonio Cromartie to fumble. A safety by trade, Abdullah had been inactive during a five-game stretch earlier this season, but has gradually developed into a special-teams mainstay. “We’ve always been a good coverage unit. It’s just that we have to get the guy on the ground, and that’s what we did Sunday,” Abdullah said. “We’re DBs, so we’re expected to shoulder the load on special teams. If we don’t make the plays, then they’ll go looking for somebody else.”
Staff writer Mike Klis can be reached at 303-954-1055 or mklis@denverpost.com.
Super Bowl shifting odds
According to The Greek.com, the odds of the Broncos winning the Super Bowl were shorter before training camp than they are now. Odds of winning the Super Bowl for select teams before the season and now:
Team July 5 Today
Carolina 7:1 115:1
Broncos 10:1 85:1
Kansas City 18:1 105:1
Dallas 6:1 16:1
Seattle 7:1 20:1
Indianapolis 4:1 6:1
Chicago 10:1 5:1
Baltimore 25:1 8.8:1
San Diego 18:1 2.35:1
New Orleans 70:1 11:1
