Could the national championship be a repeat of last year? Could Florida’s returning Gators show it really does pay off to be true your school, or could the beach boys of UCLA prove they have improved in what has been hyped as the nation’s toughest conference?
Was Roy Williams merely taking a one-year break from the Final Four last season, and due to return with the greatest collection of young talent in the land at North Carolina? Then again, can Greg Oden, already christened the NBA’s next superstar, lead Ohio State to Atlanta in his only year in school? And with only one good hand?
Those are some of the questions as we creep toward March Madness, but don’t base your office tournament pool on the heavy hitters. Or are you saying you had George Mason all along last season? Impress your co-workers. Get an atlas and find Rock Hill, S.C., and Carbondale, Ill. If your friends say they know where Winthrop is and what a Saluki is, they are lying.
Selection Sunday is March 11, and you can get started on your bracket scouting reports today. Top-ranked Wisconsin visits second-ranked Ohio State at 2 p.m. in the probable Big Ten title game and the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region.
Let the madness begin.
WHO’S IN
Southeastern
In: Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Kentucky, Tennessee.
On bubble: Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia.
Note: Arkansas, No. 42 in the RPI rankings, has wins over Southern Illinois and West Virginia, and No. 63 Mississippi’s blowout of Georgia on Wednesday did not help the No. 53 Dawgs.
Atlantic Coast
In: North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Virginia.
On bubble: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech.
Note: No. 30 Clemson and No. 39 Florida State are falling off the map, and No. 46 Georgia Tech, which has beaten Memphis and Duke, gets North Carolina at home Thursday.
Pac-10
In: UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, Oregon, Stanford.
On bubble: Southern California.
Note: No. 60 USC might have landed on the bubble by giving Arizona State its first league win.
Big Ten
In: Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Michigan State.
On bubble: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa.
Note: No. 40 Illinois’ lone quality wins were over Indiana and Michigan State, and No. 37 Purdue has knocked off Oklahoma and Virginia and closes against the conference’s bottom teams.
Big East
In: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Villanova, Notre Dame, Marquette.
On bubble: Louisville, West Virginia, Syracuse.
Note: No. 52 Louisville is hot with wins over Pitt and Marquette. Watch No. 48 West Virginia’s showdown at Pitt on Tuesday.
Missouri Valley
In: Southern Illinois, Creighton.
On bubble: Bradley, Missouri St.
Note: Missouri State, at No. 43, has beaten Wisconsin and Bradley twice, but Bradley is 29th despite being 1-7 vs. top 50.
Big 12
In: Texas A&M, Kansas, Texas, Kansas State.
On bubble: Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Missouri.
Note: Nose-diving Oklahoma State, at 36th, is 0-5 in conference road games, but No. 41 Texas Tech has defeated A&M twice, Kansas and Kansas State.
Mountain West
In: BYU, Air Force, UNLV.
On bubble: San Diego State.
Note: No. 61 Aztecs have wins over Air Force, UNLV and BYU and close out against weak links Utah and Texas Christian.
Western Athletic
In: Nevada.
On bubble: New Mexico State.
Note: Only seven of Aggies’ 21 wins are over teams with winning league marks, but one is over Nevada and they visit Reno next Saturday.
Atlantic 10
On bubble: Xavier and Massachusetts.
Note: They are tied for first but No. 47 Xavier has wins over Virginia Commonwealth, CU, Villanova, Illinois and Kansas State. No. 62 UMass won at Louisville.
Conference USA
In: Memphis.
Note: Talk about dog leagues. Memphis is the only school ranked in the top 90, and it hosts the league tournament.
Horizon
In: Butler.
Note: Wright State and Loyola (Ill.) have beaten Butler but might have to do it again in the conference tournament. Wright State could host the title game.
Colonial Athletic
On bubble: Old Dominion.
Note: No. 44 ODU has won at Georgetown and has won 10 straight, but it still trails Virginia Commonwealth for the league lead.
West Coast
Note: No. 71 Gonzaga has wins over North Carolina, Texas and Stanford, but is merely tied for the league lead with Santa Clara. The league’s lone berth will go to the tourney winner in Portland.
Mid-American
Note: Akron is the only team ranked in the top 90, and it’s only 78th. How would you like to attend this league tournament in Cleveland?
Patriot
Note: Holy Cross and Bucknell are potential NCAA sleepers. They split their two games, but Holy Cross, with a higher RPI at 69, will likely host Bucknell (No. 97) in the conference tourney for the NCAA bid.
Ivy
Note: Yale trails Penn by two games and visits the Quakers on Friday. If Yale wins and the season ends in a tie, the teams will meet at a neutral site for the bid.
Big West
Note: Long Beach State lost to Air Force by one in its opener and went on to win the league title. The 49ers will be favored to win the tourney title in Anaheim.
Southern
Note: No. 55 Appalachian State has won at Virginia, Vanderbilt and Virginia Commonwealth. It will likely have to beat Davidson in the league tourney in North Charleston, S.C.
Sun Belt
Note: South Alabama and Western Kentucky split two games and battle West Division champ Louisiana-Monroe for the league tourney title in Lafayette, La.
America East
Note: Vermont won at Boston College and is favored to reach the league tourney title game for the fifth straight year. The Catamounts will host the finals.
Mid-Continent
Note: Remember Oral Roberts winning at Kansas in November? The Golden Eagles ran away with the league crown and will be heavily favored to win the league tourney at home in Tulsa.
Metro Atlantic Athletic
Note: Siena and Niagara hoping to knock off Marist.
Big Sky
Note: First-place Weber State swept No. 2 Northern Arizona and will host the league tourney.
Southland
Note: New member Texas A&M-Corpus Christi is tied in the West Division with Sam Houston State, and they meet next Saturday for the likely No. 1 seed at the league tourney in Houston.
Ohio Valley
Note: Austin Peay ran away with the league title and will be favored in the league tourney in nearby Nashville, Tenn.
Atlantic Sun
Note: Expect East Tennessee State to emerge from the league tourney at home in Johnson City, Tenn.
Northeast
Note: Central Connecticut State will win the league by at least three games and will host each of its games in the league tourney.
Big South
On bubble: Winthrop’s only losses were at North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M.
Note: The Cougars are breezing through the league and likely the tourney, which they will host.
Mid-Eastern Athletic
Note: Delaware State won the league title but must claim the league tourney in Raleigh, N.C.
Southwestern Athletic
Note: Jackson State and Mississippi Valley State highlight a well-balanced league tourney in Birmingham, Ala.
TOP SEEDS
No. 1
UCLA – West Region, San Jose
Memphis – South Region, San Antonio
Ohio State – Midwest Region, St. Louis
North Carolina – East Region, East Rutherford, N.J.
No. 2
Wisconsin
Florida
Georgetown
Texas A&M
No. 3
Southern Illinois
Kansas
Pittsburgh
Duke
No. 4
Nevada
Kentucky
Arizona
Washington State
WHO’S HOT
Memphis: Has won 16 straight and is 13-0 in Conference USA.
Georgetown: Has won 11 straight in the tough Big East, and beat Marquette, West Virginia and Pittsburgh.
Winthrop: This year’s potential George Mason has won 15 straight and is 14-0 in the Big South.
Ohio State: On 12-game win streak, starting with Tennessee.
Bucknell: Won 12 straight and beat Holy Cross to tie for Patriot lead.
WHO’S NOT
Clemson: Lost nine of 11 after starting 17-0.
Oklahoma State: Lost six of seven by an average of 11.6 points, including a loss to Colorado.
Boston College: Lost three of four, including two at home.
Marquette: Lost four of five and plays Pittsburgh on Saturday.
Alabama: Lost four of past five and finishes vs. two Mississippi schools.
SLEEPER TEAMS
Winthrop
The Cougars are perennial Big South powers and took Gonzaga and Tennessee to the wire in the past two NCAAs. They play great defense (led league in FG percentage defense for the past nine years) and have an upperclassman lineup, led by hulking 6-foot-10, 245-pound Craig Bradshaw.
Southern Illinois
The Missouri Valley placed two in the Sweet 16 last year, and SIU could do it this year. The top eight players are back from last year’s 21-11 team, including its two senior guards, leading scorer Jamaal Tatum and Tony Young. The Salukis have won 11 straight and beat Virginia Tech in November.
Virginia Commonwealth
The Rams have become sleepers in the Colonial Athletic Conference, so why not in the NCAAs? They have played a weak nonconference schedule, but they are going to win a reasonably tough conference and are led by senior guards B.A. Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa. Senior leadership at guard is the most important element at the dance.
Holy Cross
It has lost at Syracuse by only eight, to Duke by 12 and Providence by nine. The Crusaders are led by senior guards Keith Simmons and Torey Thomas. They also go 6-10, 6-8 on the front line and lead the Patriot League in scoring defense.
Oral Roberts
Remember the team from Tulsa that knocked off third-ranked Kansas in November? Well, it is rolling through the Mid-Continent Conference behind two-time all-conference players Caleb Green and Ken Tutt. The two seniors are ORU’s top all-time scorers and will want a souvenir from the Sweet 16.
PLAYERS TO GET TO KNOW
Caleb Green, Sr., Oral Roberts
He is the top active career scorer in Division I and will soon be named Mid-Continent Conference player of the year for the third straight year. He is a 6-foot-8, 255-pound banger who has shot 54 percent over his college career.
Chris Douglas-Roberts, So., Memphis
A 6-6 slashing guard who is the Tigers’ top scorer and most consistent scorer. Memphis is one of the nation’s best defensive teams and could go a long way in the NCAA tourney. This rising star will be a reason.
Zabian Dowdell, Sr., Virginia Tech
Seth Greenberg’s first recruit in Blacksburg, Va., has led the Hokies in scoring the past two years. The 6-3 guard went lights out with 33 and 23 points in wins over North Carolina.
Marcelus Kemp, Jr., Nevada
You know Nick Fazekas from Arvada. Kemp is the Wolf Pack’s second-leading scorer at 17.7 ppg and is hitting better than 40 percent from 3-point range. The 6-5 guard keeps teams from ganging up on Fazekas.
Jeff Green, Jr., Georgetown
Roy Hibbert gets the publicity, but Green has been the Hoyas’ leading scorer the past two years. He is a slashing power forward who, at 6-9, leads Georgetown in assists.
