Referendum C will bring in about $1.6 billion more than originally forecast, according to reports released Tuesday by top state economists.
Mike Mauer, chief economist for the nonpartisan Legislative Council, said his forecast shows that the state will take in $5.37 billion over the five years the referendum is in place.
During that time, the state’s spending obligations total about $50 billion, Mauer said.
Referendum C, approved by voters in 2005, suspends revenue limits imposed by the state constitution’s Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights. At the time of the vote, economists expected it would let the state spend $3.75 billion that otherwise would have been refunded to taxpayers.
Gov. Bill Ritter’s budget director, Todd Saliman, concurred with Mauer’s outlook.
The Office of State Planning and Budgeting, a division of the governor’s office, expects the state will retain $5.35 billion from the referendum.
The projections are key tools used by lawmakers in setting the budget for the 2007-08 fiscal year, which begins July 1.
Both forecasts show that the state will have about $7 billion to spend on general-fund programs. The general fund is the key source of money for schools, universities, health care programs, prisons and other services provided by the state.
Based on Mauer’s forecast, the Joint Budget Committee has about $5.5 million left over in the current year’s budget. The JBC needs to cut $16.9 million to balance next year’s spending plan.
For the fiscal year ending June 30, Mauer expects $87 million to spill over into funding for state buildings and roads. That’s after $228.9 million is steered into roads.
Road funding has been a source of political wrangling at the Capitol this year. Both forecasts show at least $1.2 billion flowing into roads during the five-year Referendum C period.
Mauer’s forecast also signaled concern about declining severance-tax revenues, which have been used to fund several pet projects in recent years when severance-tax revenue was surging.
In 2005-06, the state collected an estimated $234.3 million in severance taxes, which are charged when oil, gas, coal and other non-renewable resources are removed from the ground. This year the state expects $124.4 million in severance tax revenues.
Rep. Bernie Buescher, D-Grand Junction, said he wants a way to trim spending on extra programs when those revenues fall. He suggested triggers or percentages that would automatically cut funding.
“The budget committee is going to have to carry a bill because the current system obviously doesn’t work,” he said.
Staff writer Mark P. Couch can be reached at 303-954-1794 or mcouch@denverpost.com.
