Any nuclear conflict, even a “small” one, will have catastrophic global consequences. That conclusion from atmospheric scientists should add to the impetus for responsible governments to make sure it never happens.
The climate specialists believe that even limited use of nuclear weapons would produce enough radioactive soot to block sunlight, lower temperatures, kill crops and disrupt the Earth’s ecosystem. An atomic blast could destroy a big chunk of the ozone layer, which keeps out harmful ultraviolet radiation. There would be millions of deaths. And the effects could last, not months, but perhaps a decade.
While some scientists question the findings, we hope the theory is never tested.
The 1970 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty committed non-nuclear countries to not build nuclear weapons in exchange for nuclear powers reducing and eventually abolishing their stockpiles. Eight countries are confirmed nuclear powers: the United States, France, Britain, Russia, China, India, Pakistan and Israel. But North Korea and Iran are pursuing nuclear ambitions, and others may be considering their options. International efforts must continue to discourage proliferation. Russia’s move last week to postpone completion of a nuclear reactor in Iran and vow to withhold nuclear fuel if Iran pursues weapons is the type of responsible action nuclear powers must take.
University of Colorado scientist Brian Toon, who led the recent studies, said about 40 countries possess the fissile material necessary for nuclear weapons, and India and Pakistan each have 50 bombs about the size of those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The analysis was presented in two papers to the American Geophysical Union meeting in December. The papers are: “Atmospheric Effects and Societal Consequences of Regional Scale Nuclear Conflicts and Acts of Individual Terrorism,” and “Climatic Consequences of Regional Nuclear Conflicts.”
The United States and Russia have reduced their nuclear stockpiles by 80 percent since the 1980s, but there is danger that rogue players are seeking weapons of mass destruction. Perhaps that shouldn’t be a surprise, given efforts by the U.S., Russia and others to update weapons.
The new data about risks should mobilize world efforts to curb proliferation.
