There is much to puzzle about in the British hostage incident contrived by Iran to prove its toughness.
One of the problems in trying to resolve the calamity was uncertainty over Tehran’s motives. Iran claimed a British patrol boat was inside its territorial waters. Britain said the action occurred in Iraqi waters nearly 2 miles outside the maritime border.
Diplomats were left to wonder if the kidnapping was sanctioned by Iranian leaders or by the Revolutionary Guard, the secretive group that spawned Iran’s anti-Western president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
The hostages – 15 British sailors and marines – were due to fly home today.
The incident could have been in retaliation for the U.S. capture of five Guard operatives in Iraq back in January or to obtain bargaining chips for some broader plan. It upstaged the United Nations vote to impose sanctions on Iran for failing to suspend its nuclear program, which is run by the guard.
Whatever the reason, Iran has played a dangerous game in an unstable region, and it must have been tempting for London to call its bluff. The more prudent course was diplomacy. Military reprisals are too unpredictable and could have strengthened the hand of Ahmadinejad at a time it has grown weaker. The release of the hostages will end a 13-day standoff with no apparent harm to the captives but with world leaders wondering what to do next about Iran.
Ahmadinejad announced the release yesterday during a long briefing in which he “pardoned” the Britons, as if they were guilty of anything. The announcement came after Iran’s state media reported that an Iranian envoy would be allowed to meet with the five Iranians detained by the U.S. in Iraq. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said the U.S. was considering Iran’s meeting request. He added that Iran also had responded to a U.S. request for information about an American, identified as a former FBI agent, who disappeared in Iran in early March. Vice President Dick Cheney said he didn’t know if the developments meant there had been any quid pro quo to secure the captives’ release. “I don’t think there should have been,” he said.
Iran is chafing under pressure to end its uranium enrichment program, so it’s not implausible to think the hostage maneuver was ginned up for March 23 to overshadow the U.N. Security Council vote the next day. The council voted 15-0 to impose sanctions, but the headlines were all about Iran snatching the Brits.
Iran might have miscalculated in its act of belligerence. Countries that have urged diplomacy for dealing with Iran might not be so willing to do so the next time.
