Among other things, this is what we’re hearing about the Avalanche stretch run:
1. It was one of the most thrilling periods in Colorado franchise history.
That’s true.
2. The Avs’ 95 points are the most of any team in NHL history that didn’t make the playoffs.
That’s true, but misleading – so misleading that to keep harping on it demeans what this team accomplished.
3. One more point anywhere and they would have been in.
That’s technically correct, but realistically dubious.
Now, let’s go over each one.
In late February, after a loss at Anaheim, this team was, yes, dead in the water. Realistically, it had no chance of making the playoffs, both because of the math and the way it was playing. The Avs could have packed it in, and management could have pulled an Edmonton, waved a white towel and traded off assets. And I’m absolutely willing to admit that I thought, to a point, that’s what they should have done, if “to a point” means getting anything they could for veterans other than Joe Sakic with expiring contracts.
They fooled me. They fooled a lot of people. They played on, energized both by burgeoning confidence and the front office’s inaction at the trading deadline, and they put together one of the most improbable stretches in the 11-season stay of the franchise in Denver.
This was different than the powerhouse years, when the Avalanche bus unloaded and the first eight guys off were potential Hall of Famers and kids were agog. This was different because it was so unexpected, so awash in don’t-quit professionalism, and we got to see Paul Stastny get to the cusp of superstardom in a 20-game stretch.
So, yes, they finished with 95 points, and that is the most ever for a nonplayoff team. But that’s like comparing new-car prices from 1995 and today.
The NHL has point inflation. Three-point games were introduced in two phases – first, with the implementation of five-minute overtimes, and then with the addition last season of shootouts if the game still was tied. All games decided in overtime or a shootout now award two points to the winner and one to the loser.
The 30 NHL teams this season averaged 91.3 points, and under the old system of two points being awarded in every game, the average would have been 82. What that means is the Avs, at 44-31-7 and 95 points, barely were above what has to be considered the “break-even,” or essentially .500, point.
So anyone advancing the theory that this was akin to what it would have been like if the 1984 Oilers missed the playoffs is way off base. All right, I’m stretching the point, but it galls me more every time I hear some folks talking as if three- point games haven’t devalued NHL point totals.
The Western Conference is stronger than the East, the Avs had a winning record – 7-3 – against the East, and they arguably are better than four teams making the postseason from the other conference. By that, I mean Atlanta, the Rangers, Tampa Bay and the Islanders.
That’s all fact or defensible opinion. That’s all reasonable to bring up when making the case that life sometimes isn’t fair. But this is equivalent to an NBA team going 42-40 in the far stronger conference and missing the playoffs. That’s it.
And this argument that the Avs were thisclose to making the playoffs? If they had one more point anywhere, including in that overtime loss at Los Angeles when the Kings scored the tying goal in the final seconds of regulation, Colorado would be in?
That requires the old standby in sports – assuming everything else would have unfolded the same way, and that almost never is a reliable assumption. In this case, the dynamic would have been different in the final weeks. At the very least, Calgary might not have gone into the tank in the final periods against Edmonton on Saturday and certainly wouldn’t have left Jarome Iginla home and wouldn’t have used Jamie McLennan in net Sunday. And that’s just scratching the surface on how strategies and mind-sets might have changed, and it involves the Avalanche and other teams as well.
The Avs left points on the table and, no question, they should be kicking themselves for it.
But taking the run for what it was (some of the most exciting hockey in franchise history) and what it can be (potentially a harbinger of greater things) is compliment enough.
Staff writer Terry Frei can be reached at 303-954-1895 or tfrei@denverpost.com.
