This is “upfront” week in New York, when TV networks unveil their fall schedules and advertisers gamble on which shows will be hits and where to spend their money. Some 75 percent of the networks’ commercial time is sold “upfront,” in advance of the season.
It’s a week of outrageous hype and nonsense, of fake schedules “leaked” to the press to throw off the competition, of star appearances and bold predictions. For viewers, it’s the week to learn which favorite shows aren’t coming back.
Last year the buzz correctly pinpointed “Ugly Betty” and “Heroes” as comers; the buzz mistakenly touted “Kidnapped” and “Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip” as sure hits.
This year, there’s positive mention surrounding the “Grey’s Anatomy” spinoff due on ABC; Hugh Jackman’s “Viva Laughlin,” based on the BBC musical miniseries “Viva Blackpool,” coming to CBS; as well as “Lipstick Jungle,” from “Sex and the City” author Candace Bushnell and starring Brooke Shields, coming to NBC.
The remake of “The Bionic Woman,” also on NBC, is said to be disappointing.
Perhaps the oddest contender is the Geico “Caveman” comedy pilot, developed by ABC from a series of commercials. If it finds an audience, it would signify a leap by advertising to the center of the pop-culture stage.
Disclaimer: Critics don’t get an official look at the pilots until after the advertising community sees the “cut-downs,” clips edited to look more interesting than the shows themselves. Pro or con, it’s all just talk for now.
Rating the ratings
Broadcast television advertising is said to be a $48 billion annual business. With the stakes so high, it’s amazing the players can’t agree on how to measure who is winning. The yardstick itself is in dispute: Should the networks charge advertisers based on the ratings for shows or on more precise ratings for actual commercials?
Other questions hanging over this year’s upfront marketing spree: Is network TV still the hottest game in town? How much headway has digital media made in stealing away viewers? Should the networks get credit for people watching shows on TiVo, iPods, etc.? And how many people are using those gizmos to skip commercials?
A.C. Nielsen is about to change the way viewers are counted. For now, if you watch a show on DVR more than 24 hours after it was broadcast, you’re not counted in the ratings. If you watch a network TV show on an iPod, you’re not counted either.
TV on the Internet is expected to make lots of noise at the upfronts this week. Ad supported streaming video is the rage. But what’s it worth?
At this time last year, trade journal Broadcasting & Cable noted, none of the networks’ websites had streaming media. Today each network has something to offer in cyberspace, from playback of full episodes to online-only material (extra scenes), to social networking (fans gathering) and interactive messages for series’ stars.
A new business model?
The CW made a splash with “content wraps” last fall – commercial breaks embedded in ongoing storylines. Those and similar ideas are likely to be expanded this year. ABC recently pitched advertisers a 10-point plan for how to keep viewers hooked during commercial breaks, how to make advertising more intriguing, interactive and seamless. Contests, cliffhangers – they figure anything that gets viewers to stick around is worth a try.
So far nobody knows how much ads are worth on the Internet or on cellphones. The technology is in use, but the business model hasn’t been invented yet. Streaming is cool, but the real ad money is still in old-fashioned television.
“The media landscape is changing at an unprecedented pace,” according to John Rash of Campbell Mithun ad agency, “but network television is still the best bet on aggregating an audience. The networks are quite aware of the challenge. Content is the once and future king.”
A show like “Grey’s Anatomy” solves problems for audiences, advertisers and networks alike, Rash said.
The choices are multiplying; the technology is evolving quickly. Yet some things don’t change: TV remains a business of hits.
After all, nobody’s discussing “content wraps” at the watercooler.
TV critic Joanne Ostrow can be reached at 303-954-1830 or jostrow@denverpost.com.
