Ramallah, West Bank – A Hamas military victory in Gaza would create a two-headed Palestine – with the Islamic extremists in control in the coastal strip and Western-backed Fatah ruling the West Bank.
It could also set the stage for a bloody confrontation with Israel and strengthen radical states in the Middle East.
“It’s a lose-lose situation for the Palestinians and Israel,” said Uzi Dayan, former head of Israel’s National Security Council.
The battle for Gaza isn’t over. But Hamas militiamen have gained the upper hand, systematically seizing positions of Fatah- allied forces, taking control of the streets and bragging they’ll keep going.
Fatah’s fighters outnumber the Hamas militia but have less firepower and lack motivation and leadership. Gaza’s Fatah strongman, Mohammed Dahlan, is getting medical treatment abroad, and the head of Fatah, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, is increasingly perceived as timid and indecisive.
Even if Abbas were to order a Fatah offensive in Gaza – and there is no sign he’s planning to do so – his demoralized forces may no longer be able to turn the tide. Fatah’s threat to pull out of its coalition government with Hamas is largely meaningless because Abbas appears too weak to call early elections.
The most likely scenario is a divided Palestine, with Hamas running Gaza and Fatah the West Bank, where Hamas is relatively weak because of continued Israeli control.
The two territories, which lie on either side of Israel, are cut off from each other by strict Israeli travel bans. Rival governments in the West Bank and Gaza would finalize that split and push prospects of a Palestinian state even further away.
Efforts to revive Israeli- Palestinian peace talks, including a recent push by moderate Arab states, would be dealt a big blow because Abbas could no longer claim to represent all Palestinians.
Instead, a Hamas-run Gaza would probably seal the coastal strip’s pariah status and Israel could block the borders, leading to a deeper humanitarian crisis. Already, two-thirds of Gazans live in poverty amid a punishing international aid boycott imposed after Hamas won parliamentary elections last year.
A Hamas victory in Gaza would put an Iranian-backed militia on Israel’s northern border and its southern one. Hamas militants have fired hundreds of rockets at Israeli border towns.
Israel would be forced to retaliate harshly to protect its civilians, despite the fact that military incursions into the densely populated territory have failed to halt the rocket fire.
