San Francisco – The oversized glove on the concourse at AT&T Park sits more as a target than an advertisement. As fans scream during batting practice, baseballs bounce off seats, out of hands, and in the case of Houston’s Carlos Lee, out of the stadium.
This image, for more than a decade, defined the game: large sluggers, big biceps, monstrous numbers. But halfway through the 2007 season, pitchers have reclaimed some of the vast territory.
If not a complete power outage, baseball’s neon light is running on a 60-watt bulb. At the all-star break, there have been 353 fewer home runs hit this season. Only five players are on pace to reach 40 home runs, compared with 15 at this point last season.
Many all-stars interviewed viewed this as a trend more than a statistical aberration.
“You just see more and more guys who are throwing 95 miles per hour, if not harder. It wasn’t like that when I broke in,” Minnesota Twins center fielder Torii Hunter said. “You look at the Tigers, every guy they have throws gas. (Justin) Verlander, when he gets mad, throws 100. That’s not fair.”
As recently as 2000, the height of the PlayStation statistics, 46 sluggers clubbed 30 home runs. This season, there are 10 starters with ERAs less than 3.00.
“I’d like to think it has something to do with us pitchers,” Verlander said.
Talk to Washington first baseman Dmitri Young, and it’s impossible not to draw that conclusion. Young has revived his career with the Nationals, but not with muscle. He’s hitting for average playing in RFK Stadium, where flyballs go to die. But it’s not the park, it’s the people who are shrinking sluggers.
“I can’t wait until we get out of that place. But, man, you have guys like (NL starter Jake) Peavy and (Brad) Penny. And that Cole Hamels from Philadelphia is nothing easy either, now,” Young said. “If you go up there trying to hit the ball out, you are going to strike out because these guys have so many pitches and more developed. They know so much about your strengths and weaknesses before you step into the box.”
Reds legend Ken Griffey Jr. wasn’t buying it. He grew up around major-league clubhouses in the 1970s and 1980s with his father. He remembers how Atlanta’s Dale Murphy was considered a superstar and “now he would be considered a middle-of-the-road player.” The nose-diving numbers to Griffey are nothing more than a quick detour on a linear path upward.
“It’s not a trend. Guys are getting bigger and stronger all the time,” said Griffey, one of the few players to exceed 40 home runs. “Home runs will keep increasing, I believe.”
San Diego closer Trevor Hoffman heard the question about the drop in home runs, listened to the numbers and resisted laughing. His job description is to prevent souvenirs, but as the victim of a handful of walkoffs he’s not ready to concede pitchers are staging a seismic shift.
“It’s cyclical. That’s how the game is,” Hoffman said. “There are too many ballparks that favor hitters to think it will stay like that.”
Yankee Alex Rodriguez is enjoying a career season. He cited Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, among others, as evidence that home runs are still prevalent, if not vital.
“If the numbers are off, I think you have to look at the weather early in the season,” Rodriguez said. “I agree with you that 30 home runs and 100 RBIs means something. But it always meant something, despite what people might have written. That’s always been a great season.”
Players were reluctant to credit steroids testing, which first came into play with the 2002 collective bargaining agreement and now features stringent punishment for violators. That evidence is more observational based on the appearance of some shrinking players since, despite former Sen. George Mitchell’s investigation, there’s no data on how many used performance-enhancing drugs.
“I don’t know how much it has to do with it. I don’t know about that, maybe some,” Rockies all-star Matt Holliday said.
In the end, the equation for fewer home runs seems to center on the X variable: 60 feet, 6 inches. With pitchers controlling that distance, the baseballs aren’t flying as far.
“Hitting is one of the toughest things to do, and you have a lot of young pitchers in the game right now who are really good,” Detroit catcher Ivan Rodriguez said. “Give them some credit.”
Staff writer Troy E. Renckcan be reached at 303-954-1301 or trenck@denverpost.com.
