Washington – A revised U.S. military plan for Iraq envisions local authorities enforcing security by 2009 but leaves open the questions of how many U.S. troops will still be needed and how quickly Americans can begin to leave in large numbers.
The plan appears to reflect an assertion by U.S. commanders that this year’s troop buildup will be needed until next summer, one defense official said.
He spoke only on condition of anonymity about a timetable that is politically sensitive – many in Congress are pushing for a decrease in U.S. involvement in a matter of months.
The Pentagon said no final decisions on changes have been made.
The revised plan foresees establishing security at the local level in Baghdad and elsewhere by the summer of 2008, although it probably would take another year to get Iraqi forces ready to enforce any newfound stability, U.S. officials said.
A number of U.S. generals commanding troops in separate regions in Iraq have said in recent days that they expect enough improvement in their areas to begin cutting American troops before that – one said August, another said January. But the U.S. may want to shift those thousands of troops to other areas of Iraq that are in worse condition.
Joint Campaign Plan
The new plan, known as the Joint Campaign Plan, was developed by Gen. David Petraeus and his political counterpart in Baghdad, Ambassador Ryan Crocker. They are to testify before Congress in September on how the current strategy is working and whether it needs to be revised.
The strategy was announced in broad terms by President Bush in January, and he ordered five extra Army brigades to Baghdad to help implement it. The more detailed campaign plan was developed in the months following – not to alter the strategy but to give it depth, with specific avenues of approach.
Not fully in effect
Col. Steve Boylan, chief spokesman for Petraeus, said the plan is still in the final editing stages and has not yet been put fully into effect. He said that while it sets an initial goal of achieving localized security by summer 2008, it does not make assumptions about specific levels of U.S. troops between now and then – including how long the five extra brigades will stay.
Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman said those decisions will be based on how well things unfold in Iraq.
“It’s not possible today to predict what the conditions may be in three months, six months or even a year down the road, but that doesn’t and should not preclude military planning taking place,” Whitman told Pentagon reporters.
The summer 2008 goal, Boylan said in a telephone interview, should be seen as “a place holder, a mark on the wall,” not an immovable commitment.
The plan envisions using locally based security initiatives, such as those that in western Anbar province have proved successful in reducing insurgent violence this year, as a starting point. Such efforts are now underway elsewhere in Iraq, including some parts of Baghdad.
That approach, it is hoped, will encourage movement at the national level to achieve political reconciliation, which is the ultimate objective.
However, there are early signs that the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is unwilling to move in that direction. His office has expressed anger at recent U.S. efforts to empower local Sunni groups in an alliance against the al-Qaeda in Iraq insurgent group – apparently out of suspicion that these Sunni groups will become extralegal militias allied against his government.
Many Democrats in Congress have argued that the only way to force al-Maliki’s government into movement on the political front is to set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. forces.
