In what will be her final forecast as a regional economist with U.S. Bank, Tucker Hart Adams stuck by the prediction she made a year ago — a recession would most likely start in late 2007 or early 2008.
Colorado, with the exception of the Grand Junction area, will follow the national trend, going into and coming out of a recession at about the same time as the rest of the country, she told an audience of several hundred bank customers and employees this morning.
Job growth in the state will slow to a paltry 0.5 percent or 11,500 jobs in 2008, down from a 1.5 percent growth rate or 35,000 jobs in 2007.
The worst of Colorado’s housing slump should be over by the end of 2008, with housing permits down another 7.1 percent next year. She expects consumers in the state will limit their retail spending next year as they deal with fewer job opportunities and slower income growth.
“The odds of a deep versus a mild recession are now about equal, with very little chance of escaping a downturn altogether in the next 18 months,” Adams said.
The severity of any downturn will depend on how quickly the global credit markets can work through a revaluation of structured credits that proved riskier than thought, she said.
There is an outside chance of a severe global recession lasting two years or longer if credit market problems worsen.
Adams, who has provided forecasts for U.S. Bank and its predecessor Colorado National Bank the past 30 years, said this one will be her last because she is retiring.
Staff writer Aldo Svaldi can be reached at 303-954-1410 or asvaldi@denverpost.com.
