Democrat Angie Paccione’s departure from the 4th Congressional District race Wednesday gives Democrats a chance to try a new strategy to seize one of the most competitive seats in the country from the GOP.
Paccione, a former state representative who announced Wednesday she would bow out of the race and instead pursue business opportunities, was considered the favorite in the 2008 Democratic primary. But there were concerns among party insiders that despite her grassroots supporters and fundraising abilities, she would again fail to topple incumbent Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave of Fort Morgan.
Their race last year, in which Paccione lost by three percentage points, turned ugly on the airwaves and exposed political baggage on both sides, including Paccione’s bankruptcy filing years ago. Many analysts also chalked up the 10 percent of the vote collected by Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness to voter dissatisfaction with both candidates.
Having a fresh candidate may help the Democrats, said David Wasserman, who analyzes U.S. House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
“There were very high negatives for both candidates … and now only Musgrave is the one who has to repair her image,” he said.
Markey gets attention
Although there are two Democrats remaining in the race, Betsy Markey is already attracting most of the attention among her party’s elected officials. The businesswoman and former aide to U.S. Sen. Ken Salazar lacks name identification and experience as an elected official. However, she has collected a number of high-profile endorsements including Salazar and U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, D-Colo., which should translate into an upswing in fundraising.
Markey faces off against Eids ness, who changed his party affiliation to Democrat after being a member of the Reform Party, making his appeal to the core Democratic base questionable.
“Most Democrats view him as a spoiler,” Wasserman said.
Whoever emerges from the Democratic primary can expect a brutal and expensive battle during the general election. Regardless of the national political environment and criticism that she hasn’t spent enough time in her district, Musgrave has managed to win both re-election campaigns.
“And now she’s been working hard to shore up her image and spend more time in her district,” said GOP consultant Katy Atkinson. “The Democrats have already thrown everything at her and yet she still wins.”
NRCC to help Musgrave
The National Republican Congressional Committee poured in $1.7 million to help Musgrave retain her seat last year, and its chairman, U.S. Rep. Tom Cole of Oklahoma, has already sent out a fundraising letter this year on behalf of Musgrave.
“We expect to do anything we can to help her out,” said Julie Shutley, spokeswoman for the NRCC.
However, the Democrats’ congressional political arm has at least 10 times more cash on hand than the GOP. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee currently has about $22 million while the NRCC has $1.6 million.
If GOP fundraising doesn’t pick up and voters still exhibit dissatisfaction with Republicans, the party may be forced to make hard decisions on what races it backs.
Staff writer Karen Crummy can be reached at 303-954-1594 or kcrummy@denverpost.com.
