HOLLYWOOD — Like any big industry, Hollywood doesn’t like surprises. And because the movie business is hardly ever certain of its own opinions, it subjects almost everything – posters, casting, remake ideas – to extensive polling.
Every weekend, the studios turn to three research companies to help predict upcoming box-office numbers. The companies – IAG Research, OTX and the National Research Group – conduct different surveys, but their numbers all try to answer the same question: Are moviegoers interested in a new release?
The data are called tracking, and throughout the week (but especially on Thursday and Friday), marketing and distribution executives sift through the numbers as closely as a desperate 49er panning for gold.
There are always surprises, but a careful reading of the data would have shown that “Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married?” would open more strongly than many people assumed.
So what do the numbers suggest for this weekend? Four new films opened in wide release Friday: Sony’s vampire film “30 Days of Night,” Miramax’s crime thriller “Gone Baby Gone,” Fox’s sports-movie spoof “The Comebacks” and New Line’s torture drama “Rendition.” The consensus is that “30 Days” will win the weekend, and while the predicted gross is estimated as high as $15 million, the film might do even better.
Some people associated with the film are hoping privately it could gross more than $20 million, but $17 million seems the highest reasonable prediction. Sony has an excellent track record with genre films, holding six of the best 20 openings, including the all-time winner, 2004’s “The Grudge” with $39.1 million.
Second place will probably fall to “Why Did I Get Married?” with “The Game Plan” third and “The Comebacks” in fourth.
The bad news for the R-rated “30 Days of Night” is that it has one week to make a real killing. On Oct. 26, Lionsgate will release “Saw IV,” which will cannibalize the horror audience.
“Saw IV” faces only one new movie in wide release, the family-friendly Steve Carell romantic comedy “Dan in Real Life.” The weekend of Nov. 2, however, will be dominated by “American Gangster,” which already is tracking like a sequel.
One of the more surprising box-office stories of the fall has been the performance of “The Game Plan.” While most movies fall some 50 percent every weekend, the feel-good football film keeps hanging in; in its second weekend of release, “The Game Plan” even toppled the heavily promoted “Heartbreak Kid.” Part of the Disney film’s staying power is attributable to peerless word-of- mouth recommendations, producer Mark Ciardi says.
