For months, politicians in such big states as California, Florida and Michigan have griped about their lack of influence in the 2008 presidential race, pushing up their primaries to try to diminish the sway of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Now, thanks to those efforts, Iowa and New Hampshire appear more important than ever.
The reasons are illustrated in the latest campaign fundraising reports, issued last week. The figures show a presidential contest that effectively has split into two financial tiers. One consists of Democratic Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, who are swimming in campaign cash. The other consists of everybody else.
Despite the competitive nature of the contest, fundraising has proved more difficult than many presidential candidates anticipated, particularly on the Republican side.
Candidates face pressure to score an early victory in Iowa or New Hampshire – the two states adamant about voting first – and then hope to replenish their campaign treasuries quickly to compete in the rapid succession of contests that follow.
Failing that, the also-rans, Democratic and Republican, probably will have to pack up their campaigns and quit before the vast majority of voters even have a chance to weigh in.
“Iowa and New Hampshire are everything,” said Scott Reed , an unaffiliated GOP strategist, echoing the words of other political analysts. “They’ll be like a slingshot for whoever wins and does well.”
The two states have signaled their determination to keep their privileged place on the campaign calendar. On Tuesday, Iowa Republicans said they would hold their caucuses Jan. 3, making for the earliest start of voting in the history of presidential primaries. In New Hampshire, there is talk of casting ballots in mid-December if needed to preserve the state’s first-in- the-nation primary.
However the calendar turns out, only two Democratic candidates, Clinton and Obama, are sitting on the kind of financial cushion that could help weather an early setback.
Clinton reported $35 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30, the latest filing deadline for the third quarter, and Obama $32 million. No other candidate had close to that in reserve.
By contrast, the Republican front- runner in national voter surveys, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, reported just over $11.6 million in the bank.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who sits atop the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, had $9.2 million in the bank, although he wields a hefty personal checkbook that could sustain him if money grows tight. Other GOP candidates reported even less cash on hand.
That makes an early victory crucial if candidates want to keep their hopes alive until Feb. 5, the biggest day of balloting in presidential primary history, when more than 20 states – including California, New York and Texas – go to the polls.
The big winners on that day probably will take a huge step toward claiming their party’s nomination, if they have not done so already.
McCain questioner gave money to Thompson
COLUMBIA, S.C. — A man who flustered White House hopeful John McCain last week by questioning his standing among fellow Vietnam prisoners of war was a contributor to a rival’s campaign.
Ed Nowokunski, a retired Air Force major and fighter pilot, gave $500 to Fred Thompson’s testing-the-waters committee in July, Federal Election Commission records show. He also gave $1,000 to President Bush a month after his 2000 primary defeat of McCain in South Carolina and in 2004 when he wasn’t opposed.
McCain supporter Orson Swindle, a former Marine POW, had suggested that an opposing campaign planted Nowokunski in the retirement community audience to embarrass the Arizona senator.
The Thompson campaign said Nowokunski donated online and the campaign has had no contact with him.
Richardson candid
NORTH HAMPTON, N.H. — Democratic presidential hopeful Bill Richardson realizes his position on reforming illegal immigration costs him votes, but he says he’s determined to “accept it and do the right thing.” The New Mexico governor applied that same attitude to a range of issues Saturday, giving candid answers to voters gathered at a supporter’s home.
When a woman urged him to forget corn-based ethanol and focus only on other potential renewable fuel sources, Richardson refused. When a man asked him to support raising taxes on gasoline, Richardson again said no.
“I think the middle class has been hit enough, and I think there are better ways to do it,” he said.
Denver Post wire services
