WASHINGTON — Gen. Pervez Musharraf’s decision to suspend his nation’s constitution and declare emergency rule Saturday poses a sharp setback for U.S. efforts to push Pakistan toward democracy, and it calls into question President Bush’s unstinting support for Musharraf despite the general’s growing unpopularity and inability to counter hard-line militants, analysts said.
The United States now finds itself with few good options and dwindling power to influence events in the nuclear-armed state, particularly because experts believe Musharraf’s actions may have ensured his demise as a national leader.
The Bush administration has given Pakistan $10 billion in aid since 2001 – much of it military assistance – and U.S. officials had warned that Congress may balk at continuing aid if emergency powers were invoked. But some analysts cautioned that if the United States is perceived as withdrawing support for Musharraf, it may increase the risk of a civil war and the shattering of Pakistan.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who called Musharraf on Friday and warned him against taking this step, said Saturday that Musharraf’s actions were “highly regrettable,” telling reporters traveling with her that “the United States has made clear it does not support extra-constitutional measures because those measures would take Pakistan away from the path of democracy and civilian rule.”
U.S. officials appeared taken aback by Musharraf’s move but quickly shifted from expressions of dismay to resignation, insisting that any “extra-constitutional measures” be brief. There was no suggestion of immediate cuts in aid, and Rice indicated she had told Musharraf that even if he imposed emergency rule, he nonetheless should move quickly to elections.
Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman called Musharraf’s declaration “unfortunate” but said it “has not had an immediate impact on the way we coordinate” with the Pakistani military. “Pakistan does remain a key ally in the global war on terror,” he said. “Close coordination with the Pakistani military on operations continues.”
The Bush administration must now start “from the premise that he’s gone, whether the people chuck him out or the military chucks him out,” said Xenia Dormandy, who until last year was the National Security Council’s director for South Asia.
Dormandy faulted the Bush administration for sending “mixed messages” to Musharraf in recent months, allowing him to believe he could weather the fallout from a declaration of emergency powers. She emphasized the State Department’s statement Saturday that the U.S. “stand with the people of Pakistan in supporting a democratic process and in countering violent extremism” and noted it did not mention support for Musharraf.
Musharraf’s democratic credentials have been less than ideal for an administration that champions the cause of freedom. He seized power in a bloodless coup in 1999 and has never fulfilled a pledge to give up his position as army chief while serving as president.
