A competitive shift has occurred, experts agree.
But to say a decade or so back, the AFC and NFC encountered a seismic shift, as some sports poets have proclaimed? Clearly, an embellishment.
“There’s no question the AFC has been hot, but you can’t really explain it geographically,” Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning said this year when asked about the AFC’s dominance. “Why is Miami in the same division as Buffalo? I mean, I think a lot of players when they get in the NFL probably don’t know which teams are in the NFC or the AFC. They figure it out once the schedule comes out.”
It doesn’t take Manning’s genius, or his humor, to look at this week’s NFL schedule to see how the AFC rules over the long-ago dominant NFC. This weekend is all about the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts, all about undefeated teams and history, all about the AFC.
Never before have two unbeaten teams met in Week 9 of an NFL season, but it will happen today in the RCA Dome when the 8-0 Patriots play the 7-0 Colts.
It’s a matchup so big, calling it an AFC showdown would be selling it short. The sense is the victor will be considered the clear favorite to win the Super Bowl, regardless of whether Dallas, Green Bay, the New York Giants or any other NFC patsy emerges as the XLII opponent.
“New England and Indy has people thinking about the AFC so much you forget the NFC is tough,” Broncos cornerback Champ Bailey said. “I wouldn’t say one is better than the other. When you’re talking about the top teams, you talk AFC, but you look at the NFC East, they’re pretty tough top to bottom. The NFC North, they’re pretty tough top to bottom. I think it’s evening out pretty good.”
Bailey’s gratuitous opinion about the other conference wasn’t influenced by his Broncos playing the NFC North’s Detroit Lions today – well, maybe a little. Truth is, conference supremacy today will be determined not by the Colts- Patriots game but the three head-to-head matchups between the AFC West and NFC North. Besides the Broncos and Lions, NFC North leader Green Bay will be playing at Kansas City and the San Diego Chargers will be at Minnesota.
“Look at the team we’re playing this week, Detroit,” Broncos right guard Montrae Holland said. “They have a pretty good defense, so you can’t write off the whole NFC. You can’t throw a blanket over this, but I would say there are more great defenses in the AFC. I would say that.”
Holland’s opinion counts more than others because he played the past four seasons with the New Orleans Saints, who played in the NFC championship game last season. Through personal competition and his own observations, Holland agrees with the numbers: The AFC is better than the NFC.
“That’s been the case, certainly, the last few years,” Lions quarterback Jon Kitna said. “But this is a cyclical league. You just never know how things are going to change. Before New England won their first Super Bowl, the NFC dominated.”
Call it the Mike Shanahan factor. From 1992-94, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers. During those three years, the 49ers lost in the NFC championship game to the eventual Super Bowl champion Dallas Cowboys, then won it all for themselves after the 1994 season.
Shanahan became the Broncos’ head coach in 1995 and two years later put an end to the NFC’s run of 15 Super Bowl championships in 16 years by upsetting the heavily favored Packers.
The Broncos began an AFC run of winning eight Super Bowls in 10 years. The streak goes beyond the one-game championship.
In the past 10 years of interconference games, the AFC never has posted a losing record in any season against the NFC and has a combined 79 more victories.
And just to put an extra lace in its spiral, the AFC has gone 9-3 in the Pro Bowl, in which the best players from each conference meet in a lightly contested exhibition in Honolulu.
There is no debate. The AFC is the dominant conference.
“Right now it is,” Shanahan said. “But it only takes one game, the Super Bowl.”
If Shanahan wasn’t the pendulum in this conference swing, he was at least weighting the axis. Another coincidence? Shanahan coached quarterbacks Joe Montana and Steve Young with the 49ers and lost in the NFC championship to a Cowboys team led by Troy Aikman.
Since he returned to the AFC, Shanahan won it all with John Elway, and later watched quarterbacks such as Manning, New England’s Tom Brady and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger hoist Super Bowl trophies.
“You’ve got to have a great quarterback to win Super Bowls and be up there consistently,” Shanahan said. “If you look at the NFC run, it was for the same reason. I think it’s a combination of a lot of things, not just quarterbacks. But you do have two of the hottest quarterbacks today, two undefeated teams that are playing well on offense and defense.”
When Manning and the Colts meet Brady and the Patriots today, the winner will be considered the team to beat in the AFC. And if it’s the team to beat in the AFC, it will be the team to beat, period.
Mike Klis: 303-954-1055 or mklis@denverpost.com
