DES MOINES, Iowa — In Iowa, it’s the season for TV pitches, political and commercial. By the time Iowans ring in the New Year, they may be sick of both.
An earlier date for Iowa’s caucuses probably means presidential candidates will run more television ads from now through December, the height of the Christmas shopping season, when retailers want to promote sales.
Moving the caucuses up 11 days to Jan. 3 also will force candidates to pay top dollar for TV ads over the holidays and soften their messages to avoid violating the serenity of the season. The same equation applies in New Hampshire, whose first-in-the- nation primary will follow the Iowa caucuses by five days.
“This is just like adding a hailstorm to a hurricane,” said Evan Tracey, who tracks political advertising as chief operating officer for TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group. “You’ve got a 16- deep field of candidates, interest groups and everybody else that’s all going to want the same time.”
The schedule presents a conundrum for the presidential campaigns. Political advertising has a tendency to become more negative closer to an election as candidates seek to contrast themselves with their rivals.
“Attack ads don’t necessarily blend well with Santa Claus and holiday cheer,” said Steve McMahon, a Democratic media strategist who ran Howard Dean’s presidential ad campaign in 2003 and 2004.
What’s more, in a field with many candidates, negative advertising can backfire.
“If candidate A attacks candidate B, it’s often not candidate A who benefits. It’s candidate C or D or E,” McMahon said.
He should know. In 2003, Dean was the target of negative advertising from liberal and conservative independent groups in Iowa and then engaged in tit-for-tat attack ads with Dick Gephardt.
The result was that John Kerry won the Iowa caucuses and John Edwards came in second.
To avoid such a scenario, candidates may count on independent groups to do the dirty work during the holidays. The Federal Election Commission on Tuesday opened the way for corporations and unions to finance political ad campaigns in the closing days of an election, provided they focus on a public-policy issue.
But those issue ads still can target a candidate, and campaign-finance experts expect a barrage to hit the Iowa and New Hampshire airwaves next month. The only question facing any independent groups is whether there are enough time slots available for a 30-second or 60-second TV spot.
Dennis Goldford, a political-science professor at Drake University in Des Moines, predicted campaigns would run positive ads until Christmas, then switch to a tougher tone in the week leading to the caucuses.
