There are five weeks remaining in the 2007 NFL regular season. Of those 80 games, how many do you think will be won by the home team? Eighty percent? Seventy? If you’re of a certain age — like older than 10 — the idea of the home-field advantage in professional football was drummed into you as much as never taking candy from strangers.
But today’s reality, like so many other things in the salary cap, free agency, parity-driven league, is quite different. As evidenced by a Donovan McNabb-less, 5-5 Philadelphia Eagles team nearly ending the New England Patriots’ quest for a perfect season at Gillette Stadium, or the Broncos’ recent foibles at Invesco Field at Mile High, what once was one of sports’ most dead-solid perfect tenets has gone by the wayside.
Candy, anyone?
“It used to be that home field meant something, but these days, it really doesn’t anymore,” Broncos safety Nick Ferguson said.
That may be the biggest thing Denver has going for it in its uphill attempt to sneak into the playoffs. After blowing a 14-point lead and losing last weekend in Chicago, the Broncos are in Oakland on Sunday, facing a Raiders team that is 1-4 at McAfee Coliseum. And where thoughts of going into the Silver and Black Hole once conjured up thoughts of protecting life and limb, about the only thing opponents worry about now is falling into a crater on the pockmarked field.
It’s the same everywhere across the NFL. This season, only half of the 32 teams have winning records at home — which is up from a year ago, when only 10 did better than .500. The only division that has four teams with winning home marks this year is the AFC South. In the AFC West, the 5-1 San Diego Chargers are the only team above the break-even point. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 3-3, part of a slide that has seen the team drop six of its past 10 games at Invesco Field.
Only once in the past three seasons have more teams finished over .500 than below at home, in 2005, and that year the number was 17, just 53 percent. To get above 60 percent, you’d have to go back to 1997, before the expansion Houston Texans entered the league and the Browns returned to Cleveland.
“There aren’t any more sap teams now, where you knew you were going to win,” Ferguson said. And while the sight of Miami on a team’s remaining schedule may bring a smile, it’s only a slight one — although the Dolphins are indeed 0-11, all six of the team’s road losses have been within 10 points and four of them have been decided by a field goal.
A precocious Chablis
When trying to determine what happened to home-field advantage, NFL players, coaches and executives offered myriad possibilities — “And anybody’s idea is probably as good as anyone else’s,” said former Washington Redskins and Texans general manager Charlie Casserly.
One common landing point however, is free agency. In recent years, better players have migrated to traditionally poorer teams, enabling them to win road games they perhaps were unable to before. But Casserly said there’s another aspect to the system that has hindered home teams to some extent.
“When players are continually moving,” he said, “they don’t have the same pride and appreciation of what it means to defend their home field.”
And in some ways, the loss of the home-field edge could be a byproduct of the league’s overall success. As the money has rolled in, most teams have built bigger stadiums. In many ways the edifices are sources of civic pride, but they aren’t necessarily benefiting the home team on Sunday afternoons.
Whereas the South Stands at Mile High Stadium used to rumble in the fourth quarter with the tension of a pending encounter between the Sharks and Jets, there are some who compare today’s atmosphere at Invesco Field to something far more genteel — like a wine-and-cheese tasting.
When Casserly was with Washington, the Redskins played their games at RFK Stadium, another joint where it seemed the metal bleachers might become unhinged, so great was the noise. Now, the team is ensconced in suburbia at FedEx Field. Perhaps it’s coincidental, but since the move was made in 1997, Washington has had only four winning seasons at home.
“You can’t say people aren’t as interested. Look at the attendance and the television ratings. But with a lot of these new places, I’m not sure the fans have the same reactions, it doesn’t seem like the same intensity is built up,” Casserly said. “We’ve made it too comfortable. With corporations holding the season tickets, the fan base changes from game-to-game, week-to-week and season-to-season. And then with club seats, people are spending more time in suites than out watching the games.”
Don’t think the trend hasn’t been noticed. While Las Vegas oddsmakers rarely look at the league as a whole, the wise guys are aware of what teams have steadily lost ground at home.
“Sometimes it takes a little time to recognize it, but the home-field advantage of yesterday just isn’t there today,” said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hilton Race & Sports Book. “Teams like Denver, Kansas City, Seattle, have all faded. The standard used to be that the home team got three points in a (betting) line; at one point, Denver was a solid 4 1/2, now it’s back down to the general three points.”
Notice the noise
When well-heeled fans are off sampling catered lunches instead of stomping their feet in the grandstands, it takes away one of the biggest advantages NFL teams have going for them — disrupting the opponents.
“The one thing that’s different about football than the other sports is the snap count,” Broncos coach Mike Shanahan said. “I believe that’s what gives you home-field advantage. If you get a crowd where the fans are really into it, it really hinders the quarterback and players getting snap count or audibling. I think that’s one of the reasons why we have the best home won-loss record in the NFL over the last 30 years.
“Our new stadium isn’t as loud as Mile High, but it’s still an excellent home-field advantage. It’s better than being on the road, I’ll tell you that.”
But if the Broncos are going to find a playoff berth in their holiday stockings, they’re going to have to tend to their knitting away from Denver. If it’s true that today’s players have lost perspective on what it means to dominate at home, they’ve at least come to realize the importance of not letting their opponents do the same.
“Home games are important, but to me, they’re not as important as they used to be,” Ferguson said. “To me, road games are most important. People talk about the 12th man and making a whole bunch of noise, but if you come in and don’t let them execute on offense or defense, you’re not giving them anything to cheer about.”
Home cooking
It has been a decade since 60 percent of NFL teams won more home games than they lost. The AFC teams that have been the best and worst at taking advantage of their home turf over the past five seasons, including 2007:
The best
(Team Rec. Pct.)
New England 31-6 .837
Indianapolis 31-6 .837
Baltimore 29-8 .783
Pittsburgh 28-10 .736
Denver 27-11 .710
Kansas City 27-11 .710
The worst
(Team Rec. Pct.)
Oakland 12-25 .324
Houston 15-22 .405
Cleveland 16-22 .421
Miami 16-21 .432
Tennessee 19-18 .513
Anthony Cotton: 303-954-1292 or acotton@denverpost.com
