WASHINGTON — As the presidential campaign got underway a year ago, the candidates faced a volatile political environment dominated by the Iraq war, illegal immigration and terrorism. A year later, the campaigns are rewriting their scripts as it looks as if the race may actually be shaped once more by the economy.
The virtual halt in job growth, the spike in oil prices above $100 a barrel, the New Year’s stock market tumble and the continuing mortgage crisis have fueled fears of recession and crystallized the nation’s growing economic anxiety. Nowhere was that clearer this week than in New Hampshire, where exit polls showed that the economy has overtaken all other issues as the top concern for Democrats and Republicans alike.
While the Federal Reserve indicated Thursday that it will move to spur growth and President Bush and Congress consider stimulus packages, economic worry has already forced the presidential candidates to retool their messages. Republican Rudy Giuliani proposed a new tax cut package Thursday as rivals appealed to economically distressed voters in Michigan. Democrat Barack Obama, who fared worst among New Hampshire voters worried about the economy, focused more heavily on the theme Thursday.
Deep apprehension
“The economy’s No. 1,” said Scott Paul, director of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a coalition of manufacturers and the United Steelworkers that has found deep apprehension about the economy at town-hall meetings held in early primary states. “It’s organic. It’s not an organized effort. But it’s something the voters, Republicans and Democrats, are fretting about.”
Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist advising Obama’s campaign, said travels through Iowa brought home just how powerful the concern has become.
“Everywhere I went there were people all over the issue, asking a whole lot of economic questions — as many questions as they were asking about Iraq,” he said. “The conditions in the economy have only soured since then.”
The poll numbers in New Hampshire were striking. Among Democrats, 38 percent called the economy the biggest issue, compared with 31 percent who named Iraq and 27 percent who said health care. Among Republicans, 31 percent cited the economy, while 24 percent said Iraq and 23 percent chose illegal immigration.
Nationally, the economy began popping to the top of voter concerns before the turn of the year. A Washington Post-ABC News poll in November found that Iraq was the dominant issue by a ratio of 2 to 1.
By last month, the same survey found the economy and Iraq essentially tied as the biggest areas of concern for voters across the country.
But different voters have different anxieties about the economy.
For some, it may be jobs, for others housing. Health care and energy costs trouble large swaths of the population.
“You’ll see candidates spending more time on the economy,” said former White House political director Sara Taylor, who worked on Bush’s campaigns. “But it won’t be enough to address the economy as a whole. They’ll have to discuss” individual areas of concern.
Test comes Tuesday
Michigan, which votes Tuesday, may be a proving ground on the issue.
“It’s huge in Michigan,” said William Rustem, president of Public Sector Consultants. “We continue to be at or near the bottom in terms of unemployment. We were tied in 2005 with North Dakota for the largest outmigration rate. So the economy is going to be huge. People are looking for answers at both the state and federal level as to what we do in Michigan.”
