WASHINGTON — Democrat Barack Obama would narrowly defeat Republican John McCain if they were matched today in the presidential election, while McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton are running about even, according to a poll.
Obama outpaces Clinton in a matchup against McCain among men, minorities and moderates in an Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Monday. And she does no better than Obama when pitted against McCain among two groups that have supported her in Democratic primaries so far: women and whites.
When Clinton is paired against McCain in a general-election matchup, she gets 46 percent to his 45 percent, according to the poll. Obama edges McCain, 48 percent to 42 percent in their pairing.
One reason McCain holds his own against Clinton is his support from men, who prefer him to the New York senator by 9 percentage points. That compensates for her 11-point advantage among women.
Obama does better than Clinton with men when paired against McCain, splitting the male vote with the Arizona senator. Obama does especially well with men younger than 45: The Illinois senator defeats McCain by 9 points among younger men, while McCain defeats Clinton with those voters by 7 points.
Meanwhile, Obama’s advantage over McCain among women is about the same as Clinton’s, blunting her edge in a group that has been the core of her strength in her fight for the Democratic nomination. Women favor Obama over McCain by 12 points and favor Clinton over McCain by 11.
Obama gets 74 percent of the votes of minorities when paired against McCain, 7 points more than Clinton. Echoing a pattern seen in most Democratic primaries so far, Obama does better than Clinton among blacks, while she attracts slightly more support from Latinos.
Yet among whites, who have preferred Clinton to Obama in most Democratic contests this year, she has no advantage when each is paired against McCain. Both get 37 percent of whites’ backing, trailing McCain substantially.
Obama slightly outdoes Clinton against McCain among moderates, a group that comprised almost half the voters in the 2004 general election and that both parties will contest fiercely in November’s general elections. Obama gets 51 percent of their votes against McCain, compared with Clinton’s 45 percent.
While Obama has done better than Clinton among independents in their fight for the Democratic nomination, that advantage does not show up when each is pitted against McCain. Each Democrat gets four in 10 independent votes to McCain’s one-third with those voters.
The Feb. 7-10 phone survey of 1,029 adults had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Included were 520 Democrats, for whom the error margin was 4.3 points, and 357 Republicans, with an error margin of 5.2 points.
