ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — The only thing messier than the prelude to this troubled country’s general election could be its aftermath.
Regardless of who wins Monday’s parliamentary vote, the first genuinely contested election in years, many observers think turmoil probably will follow — in the form of long-lasting political upheaval or a swift outbreak of rioting, or some combination of the two.
The campaign season has been punctuated by bloody and chaotic events, chief among them the assassination in December of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the country’s most popular politician. Add to that long-held hatreds, predictions of massive vote-rigging and a crackdown on opposition groups and the electronic media, and few look to Monday’s polling without trepidation.
If the party aligned with President Pervez Musharraf triumphs, despite polls forecasting its defeat, the result could be an outburst of popular anger.
“You see, this is why everyone is so on edge,” said schoolteacher Aisha Ali, serving tea in her garden while the call to prayer echoed from the neighborhood mosque. “Everyone knows that the vote isn’t the end of all this upheaval — it may be just the beginning.”
If the two main opposition parties take the lion’s share of the vote, as polls predict, their leaders would have to overcome long-standing enmity to govern together. Politics here are deeply personal, often involving not only blood ties but blood feuds.
The two main opposition leaders illustrate those deep-rooted animosities. Bhutto’s widower, Asif Ali Zardari, took over leadership of her Pakistan People’s Party after her death. If the opposition wins, he could find himself in a coalition with the party of Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister and a protege of Gen. Zia ul-Haq, who deposed and executed Bhutto’s father.
Despite their common stance against Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif dislike each other intensely, associates of both say — although on the night of Bhutto’s assassination, Sharif rushed to the hospital to pay respects.
If the main opposition parties secure control of two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, they could move to impeach Musharraf, whose approval ratings have plunged to an all-time low of about 15 percent, propelled downward by his declaration of emergency rule late last year. During it, he suspended the constitution and jailed thousands of opponents and judges.
Human-rights groups insist there is already ample evidence the balloting will be tainted by widespread bribery, intimidation and vote manipulation.
The New York-based group Human Rights Watch on Friday released a tape of what it said was the country’s attorney general, Malik Qayyum, telling a would-be candidate in a phone conversation that the poll would be “massively rigged.”
The election will be watched over by a relatively small number of outside observers, including European Union monitors. But the bulk of on-the -ground scrutiny at more than 64,000 polling places will be volunteers from Pakistani civil groups, who are keenly aware of the danger of their task.
“Those doing this job, they are very brave people,” said Zafarullah Khan, director of the Centre for Civic Education in Islamabad. “They are vulnerable to many risks, and they know this.”
Party workers and candidates have lodged hundreds of complaints of beatings and threats, often from Pakistani police or local authorities dependent on government patronage.
