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Getting your player ready...

SAN FRANCISCO — After snubbing Microsoft’s deadline for a merger deal, Yahoo may now face the prospect of a proxy war with the software behemoth — a struggle many observers think it will likely lose.

But Yahoo has done the math and believes victory is possible, especially if Microsoft refuses to raise its offer, according to an analyst briefed by the Web portal.

“They’re looking at their hand,” said Roger Kay of Endpoint Technologies Associates, “and think they can win.”

Microsoft, which offered $44.6 billion in a merger, has not yet formally launched a proxy campaign to take over Yahoo’s board of directors. Kay says Yahoo’s gambit is based on the assumption that most of the company’s shareholders want and expect Microsoft to sweeten the deal. Yahoo co-founders Jerry Yang (also the company’s chief executive) and David Filo together control nearly 10 percent of the company’s outstanding shares.

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