The primaries in North Carolina and Indiana today offer Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton one more chance to transform their long and bitter struggle for the Democratic presidential nomination.
Results from what is the most delegate-rich day left on the primary calendar could close the deal for Obama, give a major boost to Clinton or leave the race about where it has been — with Obama ahead but not yet able to nail down the prize.
Late polls gave Obama a single-digit lead in North Carolina and Clinton a similar advantage in Indiana. In television interviews Monday, both said they expected the contest to go on no matter what happens today.
“I want your vote. I want it badly,” Obama told employees of an electronics company in Durham, N.C. “The question you have to ask is who can best deliver on the promise to bring change.”
Clinton said to a crowd in High Point, N.C.: “I am running because I think with all my heart that I am best prepared to be the president and I am the stronger candidate to take on (Republican) John McCain in the fall.”
Should Obama win both North Carolina and Indiana, where a combined 187 delegates are at stake, the race would be all but over, whether Clinton acknowledged it or not.
Many of the undecided superdelegates, including some of the more prominent ones, likely would start lining up behind Obama and talking about the need to prepare to take on the Republicans.
Two victories by Clinton, though, would undermine Obama’s claim to the nomination, reinforce doubts about his electability and bolster her argument to the superdelegates that she is the party’s better bet against McCain in November.
A split, with Obama prevailing in North Carolina and Clinton in Indiana, is the most likely outcome, according to the polls.
While not a game-changer or a game-ender, a divided outcome would help Obama run out the clock, putting him that much closer to 2,025 delegates — the magic number needed to nail down the nomination — and making the arithmetic for Clinton that much more daunting.
The 2,025 number does not take into account the disputed and currently unrecognized delegations from Michigan and Florida, where primaries were held earlier than party rules allowed. Clinton won both, although no candidates campaigned in either state and Obama’s name wasn’t on the Michigan ballot. A Democratic National Committee panel is to address the predicament of both states May 31.
After today, the focus of the campaign will be less about the six primaries that remain and more about the superdelegates, the party and elected officials who get to attend the convention in Denver by virtue of their positions.
Only 217 pledged delegates are at stake in the primaries after today — and they will be allocated on a proportional basis — compared with about 270 superdelegates who have yet to endorse a candidate.
The primaries end June 3, and party chairman Howard Dean has asked all superdelegates to state their preference by the end of June.
Obama, since his nine-point defeat in Pennsylvania two weeks ago, has fared better than Clinton among superdelegates. He has picked up 19 to her 11, including two more from Maryland on Monday.
Overall, Obama leads Clinton 1,745.5 to 1,607.5 in total delegates, according to The Associated Press.
The final week leading up to today’s primaries was dominated by a debate over Clinton’s proposal to repeal the federal gasoline tax for the summer and make up the difference with a windfall-profits tax on oil companies. Obama has called the proposal “political pandering” and “a perfect metaphor” for politics as usual.
