Don’t look now, but your 2008 Rockies are performing a lot like the 2006 Houston Astros. Just as the 2007 Rockies performed a lot like the 2005 Astros.
Which means chills and thrills could still arrive in LoDo in September, but ultimately the end game will be a bummer.
Consider:
• The 2005 Astros were 15-30 on May 24 but became the first team since the 1914 Boston Braves to make the postseason after falling 15 games under .500. They then were swept by the White Sox in the World Series.
• The 2007 Rockies were nine games under .500 on May 21, but won 21 of 22 games to win the NL title and advance to the World Series. They were the first team since the 1935 Cubs to win 21 of 22 after Sept. 1. The Red Sox then swept the Rockies in the Series.
• The 2006 Astros hovered at or below the .500 mark most of the season. They eventually finished 82-80, barely missing the playoffs.
• The 2008 Rockies, with nearly one-quarter of the season in the book, are 15-23, eight games behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West.
There are, of course, some major differences between the Astros’ post-World Series fall from grace and that of the Rockies. The 2006 Astros relied on the strong pitching of Roy Oswalt, Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte to stay in the race. Houston’s bullpen often was a mess, and its offense was meek and ineffective. Plus, the NL Central was awful.
The Rockies’ quandary this season is different. Quality starting pitching remains the missing link, while the bullpen — despite Manuel Corpas’ woes — shows promise. The offense is a proven commodity, even though it’s yet to produce. Unfortunately for the Rockies, the NL West of 2008 is not the NL Central of 2006. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers are for real, both loaded with young talent and pitching, and they have already whipped the Rockies repeatedly this season.
Two years after their World Series, the Astros’ tumble became a pratfall. They finished 73-89, manager Phil Garner was fired and the farm system was nonproductive.
Things don’t look so dire for the 2009 Rockies. Sure, Matt Holliday’s future here is in serious doubt, and so is Garrett Atkins’, but there’s a lot of young talent ready to blossom on the mound, in the field and behind the plate. That probably won’t be enough to fix what’s wrong with the Rockies in ’08, but it should keep the ’09 Rockies from becoming the ’07 Astros.
