An earthquake with a magnitude similar to the one that recently rocked China is inevitable in Southern California and could cause about 2,000 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion in damage if it happened today, the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey warn in a report.
In the study, “The ShakeOut Scenario,” being released today, scientists examine the effects of a hypothetical 7.8-magnitude earthquake along the San Andreas fault on the region’s physical infrastructure and economic and social systems.
“The question is not if but when Southern California will be hit by a major earthquake — one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region,” the report said. “Unlike many other faults, the southern San Andreas fault produces no small earthquakes.”
The study — prepared by a multidisciplinary team that included scientists, government officials, emergency responders and utility experts — predicted that major freeways and railways would be severed.
“An earthquake of this size and scope is inevitable in Southern California, and we are simply not ready for it,” said Sue Perry, a USGS staff scientist who contributed to the report. “An earthquake of that size could be the Katrina of Southern California.”
However, Perry said the Southern California economy appeared to be resilient and would likely recover.
“Though this would be an enormous disaster, unless a whole lot of things go wrong that we can’t hypothesize in this study, it looks like we’ll avoid the kind of long-term, decades-long economic downturn that characterizes a catastrophe,” she said.
There has not been a devastating temblor in urban California since the 6.7-magnitude Northridge quake in 1994, which killed 57 and caused about $40 billion in damage.
The recommendations include storing water, increasing volunteer preparedness and collaborative planning, retrofitting problem buildings and strengthening infrastructure.
