Colorado Democrats have repeatedly said their efforts this year to reform health care would mean that about 50,000 more uninsured kids in Colorado would get coverage.
But a closer examination shows thousands of the children included in the total aren’t expected to enroll in coverage for three years, while other figures are based on fuzzier estimates of the number of kids who would be signed up after community outreach efforts, streamlined enrollment and increased fees to doctors.
And about 20,000 of the kids in the total are expected to enroll in the state’s Child Health Plan Plus — or CHP+ — under current eligibility levels. Those children could have been denied coverage — if lawmakers had chosen to cap enrollment in the program, something that last occurred in 2003 under Republican rule.
Rep. Al White, a Hayden Republican who serves on the legislature’s Joint Budget Committee, said Democrats are exaggerating their achievements.
Paraphrasing an adage used by Mark Twain, White said, “There’s lies, damned lies and statistics.
“I think it’s certainly a stretch to say they’re adding these 20,000 kids who are being added through natural growth in the program,” White said.
Since the legislature adjourned, Democrats have touted “50,000 kids without insurance who will get health care” as a result of new legislation.
Gov. Bill Ritter has used the number several times.
“We think that over a three-year period that we’ll be able to insure 50,000 more kids, pull them off the ranks of the uninsured,” Ritter said at a recent news conference. “Think about a place like Coors Field, if you took every seat in Coors Field, filled it with an uninsured child in a three-year period, we’ll have those children moved onto the ranks of the insured.”
In an interview, Ritter said he was confident the figure would prove to be accurate in years to come.
“The 50,000 is a forecast number, and we believe that is a righteous number,” he said. “If at the end of three years we haven’t gotten there, the naysayers can level whatever criticisms they want.
“This is a priority for us.”
Amalgam of figures
The 50,000 figure was a rounded number Ritter’s budget staff arrived at by calculating a variety of factors:
First, there was their estimate of the number of children who would be added to the CHP+ program next year under current eligibility levels — 19,577;
Then, they estimated 12,000 children would be added to Medicaid and CHP+ rolls as a result of outreach efforts.
An estimated 9,040 children would be added to the CHP+ program by raising income eligibility levels from the current 205 percent of the federal poverty level to 225 percent.
And, finally, an estimated 10,864 more kids who would enroll in CHP+ and Medicaid as a result of increased fees to doctors, streamlined enrollment procedures and efforts to get more kids consistent health care with centralized record-keeping.
Rep. Bernie Buescher, D-Grand Junction, chairman of the legislature’s Joint Budget Committee, acknowledged that some of the 50,000-kid estimate comes as the result of natural growth in CHP+.
However, he said Democrats deserve credit for that growth because of previous outreach efforts.
“I think it’s legitimate to say that when we do outreach that expands the number of kids enrolled, that that’s an expansion,” Buescher said.
He said Democratic efforts on children’s health care this year were “setting in motion the things that will bear fruit over several years.”
Joan Henneberry, executive director of the Department of Health Care Policy and Financing, said Ritter deserves credit for increased enrollment.
“The minute Gov. Ritter walked through the door, he said, ‘I want to enroll kids in the program who are eligible,’ ” Henneberry said. “Sure, some of the kids would have found their way to us no matter what, but not many.”
Henneberry said about 59,000 children are enrolled in CHP+, 13,000 of whom have been added to the program since January 2007.
Lawmaker calls it “spin”
Buescher said Democratic lawmakers are committed to increasing funding for CHP+ and Medicaid over the next several years to pay for the greater numbers of children expected to enroll in the programs.
Megan Ferland, president of the Colorado Children’s Campaign, said lawmakers took major strides to address children’s health care this year, but many problems remain. There are about 180,000 uninsured children in Colorado, according to her organization.
“It (the 50,000 estimate) is speculative, and it’s based on a whole lot of projections, a lot of ifs,” Ferland said.
“I don’t know that that’s unusual when you’re putting together those kinds of forecasts,” she said. “I think they can definitely take credit for creating the possibility that it will happen.”
White agreed Democrats can claim credit for increasing the number of children with health coverage, but said it’s unrealistic to boast of future achievements.
“It’s spin,” White said. “We all want to paint ourselves in the best light possible. If everything goes right, and if the revenues increase to the point where we can fund all the hopes and dreams of the administration, that’s great.
“But there’s a lot of ‘if’ between now and then.”
Tim Hoover: 303-954-1626 or thoover@denverpost.com
