Barack Obama’s narrow victory in the nation’s longest presidential primary campaign has given Democrats a nominee scarred from battle, a campaign sapped of much of its momentum and an electorate deeply divided by demographics.
Even while celebrating his improbable achievement Tuesday night, Obama faced stinging reminders of challenges he has yet to solve.
He lost the primary election in South Dakota, as senior citizens and working-class white voters defiantly stuck with Hillary Rodham Clinton, exit polls showed. Both voter groups are considered crucial to victory in November.
After controversies over his former pastor and other issues, Obama has lost ground among the independent voters who are important in any presidential election. In February, 63 percent of independents said they had a favorable impression of the Illinois senator; last month, that number was down to 49 percent, according to the Pew Research Center.
Still, as Obama emerges as his party’s standard-bearer, he enters the general election campaign standing roughly equal with his Republican opponent, John McCain.
That is not a bad place to start, Democratic strategists assert.
“He’s got some weaknesses, but he’s got tremendous strengths,” said Tad Devine, who was a top campaign strategist for the Democrats’ 2004 nominee, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass. “He’s got advantages we didn’t have four years ago. . . . He’s got plenty of time to do this as long as the Democratic Party comes together, and I think it will.”
The crises and controversies that Obama navigated could prove to have been good preparation for the clashes to come. His campaign sputtered in the final run of primaries, winning only four of the last 10 contests, but it is still raising more money than any previous presidential effort. The Democratic electorate is divided, but that’s not unusual by historical standards — and nothing a strong endorsement from Clinton won’t fix.
What Obama needs to do now, Devine and other strategists said, is to unify Democrats by reaching out to Clinton and her supporters. He must define the election as a choice between continuing the policies of an unpopular president, George W. Bush, or changing course. Perhaps most important, he must act quickly to neutralize his own potential weaknesses in the eyes of the electorate — his youth and relative inexperience, especially on national security issues.
Said Jim Jordan, another longtime Democratic strategist who, like Devine, worked for neither Obama nor Clinton this year: “He has some demystifying to do. Republican attacks on him will be largely based on experience and ideology. . . . He needs to show that he’s tough enough and strong enough to guide the country in a dangerous world.”
Polls show that most voters prefer Obama’s positions to McCain’s on a range of major issues: the war in Iraq, the economy and health care, for example. But they rate McCain more highly on his experience in foreign policy and his ability to confront international terrorism.
Obama is likely to tackle those issues as early as today, when he is scheduled to speak before the annual meeting of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the nation’s largest pro-Israel lobbying group. McCain ridiculed Obama before the group Monday for his offer to meet with Iran’s president without preconditions.
