As publishers pray for a new children’s series to equal Harry Potter and await the next novel by “The Da Vinci Code” author Dan Brown, a recent report predicts a tight market for at least the next few years.
The Book Industry Study Group, a nonprofit organization supported by the publishing industry, projects a 3 to 4 percent growth through 2011, when revenue should top $43 billion.
The organization expects little change in the actual number of books sold and sees a drop in the general trade market by more than 60 million, from 2.282 billion copies in 2007 to 2.220 billion in 2011.
Acording to BISG senior researcher Albert N. Greco, hits will do well, while others will struggle. Barring another Potter-like phenomenon, Greco believes the children’s market will barely break even, and modest gains can be expected in most adult categories.
The biggest losers likely will be mass-market paperbacks, which continue to plunge as baby boomers seek formats with larger prints, while religious books should keep growing, the report notes. The Associated Press
First Line
An Expert in Murder: A Josephine Tey Mystery, by Nicola Upson
“Had she been superstitious, Josephine Tey might have realised the odds were against her when she found that her train, the early morning express from the Highlands, was running an hour and a half late. At six o’clock, when she walked down the steps to the southbound platform, she expected to find the air of excitement which always accompanies the muddled loading of people and suitcases into a departing train. Instead, she was met by a testament to the long wait ahead: the carriages were in darkness; the engine itself gravely silent; and a mountain of luggage built steadily along the cold grey strand of platform. But like most people of her generation, who had lived through war and loss, Josephine had acquired a sense of perspective, and the train’s mechanical failure foretold nothing more sinister to her than a tiresome wait in the station’s buffet. In fact, although this was the day of the first murder, nothing would disturb her peace of mind until the following morning.”
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