Military service will doubtless be an issue in the presidential campaign between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama. Already, Obama has supported a bill improving veterans’ education benefits. McCain has not, and said that “I will not accept from Sen. Obama, who did not feel it was his responsibility to serve our country in uniform, any lectures on my regard for those who did.”
McCain, a Navy pilot, endured more than five years as a prisoner of war in North Vietnam. But how much influence does a military record have at election time? And how much should it?
Let’s go back in time and attempt to assign the Military Service Advantage (MSA) to the major-party candidates in each of the presidential elections since 1948.
1948: Harry S. Truman, artillery captain at the front in World War I, vs. Thomas E. Dewey, no military experience. MSA to Truman, the winner.
1952 and 1956: Dwight D. Eisenhower, general who led the Allied invasion of Europe during World War II, vs. Adlai E. Stevenson, seaman apprentice during World War I. MSA to Eisenhower, who won.
1960: John F. Kennedy, decorated naval officer in World War II, vs. Richard M. Nixon, naval supply officer. Although Kennedy’s PT-109 heroics may have been inflated, he did face hostile fire, and Nixon did not. MSA to Kennedy, who won.
1964: Lyndon B. Johnson, in action for 13 minutes as a reserve officer on an inspection tour, vs. Barry M. Goldwater, pilot during World War II assigned to convey planes and supplies all over the world. MSA to Goldwater, who lost.
1968: Richard Nixon vs. Hubert Humphrey, who tried to enlist during World War II, but was rejected on account of a hernia. MSA to Nixon, who won.
1972: Richard Nixon vs. George McGovern, decorated World War II bomber pilot. MSA to McGovern, who lost.
1976: Jimmy Carter, Naval Academy graduate with seven years of active duty, none at a front line, vs. Gerald R. Ford, a naval officer in the Pacific fleet during World War II. Call this MSA a tie; Carter won.
1980: Carter vs. Ronald Reagan, a reserve Army officer who spent most of World War II making training films. Carter served longer and was a service-academy graduate, so he gets the MSA. He lost.
1984: Reagan vs. Walter Mondale, who served in the Army at Fort Knox, Ky., during the Korean War. Since both served and neither faced hostile fire, this is a tie.
1988: George H.W. Bush, decorated torpedo bomber pilot in World War II, vs. Michael Dukakis, who served in the Army in Korea after the Armistice. MSA to Bush, who won.
1992: Bush the Elder vs. Bill Clinton, who finessed his way around the Vietnam draft. MSA to Bush, who lost.
1996: Bob Dole, decorated World War II combat veteran, vs. Clinton. MSA to Dole, who lost.
2000: Al Gore, Army service in Vietnam, vs. George W. Bush, national guard pilot. MSA to Gore, who lost.
2004: John Kerry, decorated Vietnam combat veteran, vs. Bush the Younger. MSA to Kerry, who lost.
Out of the 13 elections where there was a distinct MSA, the candidate with the MSA won seven — just over half. Further, no MSA winner has won a presidential election since 1988, two decades ago. This suggests that McCain might do well to focus on other issues this year.
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Happy Father’s Day to the Ed Quillen who lives in Longmont, and to Aaron Thomas of Eugene, Ore., who is married to my daughter Abby, who bore a 9-pound boy named Ezra Quillen Thomas on June 6. I am a happy grandpa this Father’s Day.
E-mail Ed Quillen at ed@cozine.com.
