In Montana, where “opening day” refers to the beginning of hunting season rather than baseball, a candidate’s political survival usually hinges on one issue: guns.
A candidate’s position on gun rights is the Montana entrance exam. Answer correctly and you can move on to discuss other issues. Give the wrong answer and most voters don’t want to hear what else you have to say.
“Anyone running for office here must be really negative on gun control and very supportive on gun rights,” said Jim Lopach, a political science professor at the University of Montana. “It’s one of those ‘gotcha’ questions.”
Those are the political waters Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama must navigate if they want to win votes in Big Sky Country. McCain, an Arizona senator, is considered more gun-friendly than Obama, although the National Rifle Association has given him a C rating. Obama has received an F rating from the NRA, and although he has spoken about “common-sense” gun control, many voters may be opposed to any perceived limits on their Second Amendment rights.
“People in Montana don’t want restrictions on their guns. That issue alone is a major problem for Obama here,” said Erik Iverson, head of the Montana GOP.
Although Montana only has three electoral votes, the close margins in the past two presidential elections made one point clear: Every electoral vote counts.
Outsiders often consider Montana nearly blood-red in its political allegiances, but in-state political analysts say the state has always gone through cycles. Yet, voters have backed Republican candidates in all but one of the past 10 presidential elections.
Currently, the rotation is blue.
In the past four years, the state has elected Democrats for governor and U.S. senator and put Democrats in control of both chambers of the legislature. That contributes to the state’s potential battleground status. But there have also been changes over the years: More people have moved into smaller cities, conservationists appear to have more clout and the state is in the midst of a restoration economy, cleaning up polluted rivers, old mines, forests and brownfields.
The state is also involved in fostering energy alternatives, such as wind power and coal gasification.
“That’s especially where Obama has appeal. He understands this kind of economy,” said Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer. “That, and people are fed up with Republican leadership.”
Schweitzer and Democratic Sen. Jon Tester won their seats with a message of economic populism and by portraying themselves as Davids battling Washington and corporate Goliaths. Obama has similar messages in his campaign, and he can tap into his grassroots organization left over from the caucuses.
But Obama is a different type of candidate from libertarian-sounding Tester and Schweitzer. In Montana, Democrats usually walk, talk and act like Republicans.
Additionally, Obama may be haunted by a comment — that rural voters “cling to guns and religion” — he made leading up to the Pennsylvania primary.
However, even Iverson doesn’t think the state is a lock for the GOP. McCain is strong, he said, on issues like energy and national security. But he said voters notice he doesn’t have an office or any real presence in the state.
“He needs to realize he could lose the state if he ignores it,” he said.
