WASHINGTON — John Paul Stevens still plays tennis at 88.
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 75, works out regularly in the Supreme Court gym.
The oldest two justices — half the court’s liberal wing — top the list of those considered likely to retire during the next presidential administration. Despite Stevens’ and Ginsburg’s apparent vigor, change on the Supreme Court is more likely than not over the next four years.
“One would think that over the course of the next four years, the actuarial tables would catch up with the oldest members, as they do for us all,” said Pepperdine University law professor Douglas Kmiec.
With five justices 70 or older by the time the court meets again in October, interest groups and commentators have been talking about the court’s role in the presidential election. One change on a court that divides 5-4 in key cases can alter the results.
But their forecasts depend on three factors: Who wins the presidency, who leaves the court and who is appointed.
Democrat Barack Obama would most likely be replacing liberal justices with like-minded successors. Republican John McCain would put a conservative justice on the court in the mold of Chief Justice John Roberts or Justice Samuel Alito.
Alito, among President Bush’s two selections, repeatedly has demonstrated the difference one justice can make on a closely divided court. The result in disputes over abortion, religion and school desegregation almost certainly would have been different had Sandra Day O’Connor not retired in 2006.
The Supreme Court rarely becomes a big issue in the presidential campaign and this year appears to be no exception with $4-a-gallon gas, steep declines in the stock market and two wars.
The unpredictably of Supreme Court retirements is another reason why the court rarely becomes an issue in presidential campaigns.
Nine of the last 10 justices who retired or died in office were at least 75; six of those were 79 or older.
