A new commercial attacking Jared Polis’ charter school support and plan to revamp No Child Left Behind — the first negative ad in the race — isn’t likely to wound him in the progressive, Boulder-area district, analysts say.
The $150,000-plus spot could, however, ignite the firestorm of attacks that politics watchers have predicted since the outset of the expensive and contentious race for the 2nd Congressional District.
But any critic in the run up to the Aug. 12 primary will struggle to find cannon fodder, since the three Democrats are close on most major issues, said Scott Adler, political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder.
“I’m not convinced that these (arguments) will resonate with voters,” Adler said. “Vouchers, of course, are seen as a means of undermining public education. Is it the most important issue? I think you’d be hard pressed to say that right now.”
Colorado Counts, a 527 political organization started in July by lobbyist and former AFL-CIO leader Steve Adams, paid for the commercial that started airing this week.
Polis’ campaign was quick to point out that the ad helps opponent Joan Fitz-Gerald and that Adams’ lobbying firm, Colorado Communique, represents oil firm BP Global.
Fitz-Gerald’s campaign distanced itself from the commercial, but said Polis should still answer the questions it raises.
But bashing Polis for starting two charter schools – one helps inner-city kids, the other children of non-English-speaking immigrants – won’t sway many Boulder voters, said Colorado State University political science professor John Straayer.
And Polis’ views line up with opponent Will Shafroth and popular presidential candidate Barack Obama when it comes to renovating rather than razing No Child Left Behind. Fitz-Gerald would scrap it entirely.
The tack might peel off a few Polis votes in what promises to be a tight race, but it could also backfire, Straayer said.
Fitz-Gerald’s campaign vowed to remain positive, but Polis campaign manager Robert Becker has promised to vigorously defend his candidate.
The race has grown more negative in recent weeks with the Polis camp launching a series of press releases criticizing Fitz-Gerald for lunching with lobbyists and the appearance of a mysterious telephone poll thumping Polis.
With big bucks in all three bank accounts – each candidate has raised more than $1 million and Polis has contributed at least $3.7 million of his own – there is huge potential for a knock-down-drag-out, though it may come from other groups, Adler said.
“You certainly don’t want to lose with money in your pocket,” Adler said. “I would not be surprised if they continue to be negative.”
Jessica Fender: 303-954-1244 or jfender@denverpost.com.
