Prediction: By the time the Broncos travel to the Meadowlands for a regular-season game on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, the New York Jets and Brett Favre will be widely judged as a mistake.
Because Favre is too tough and stubborn to have his NFL consecutive-start streak, now a record 275 games, end with injury, it says here his remarkable durability run will be doomed by unremarkable performance.
Favre has already refused to accept a backup role to Aaron Rodgers with the Packers. What will he do if after a 2-6 start, he is given no choice but to watch Kellen Clemens lead the Jets against the Broncos?
Credit the Jets for making the greatest marketing move of at least the past decade. Never before has an NFL jersey matched the first-day fervor of the Favre, No. 4, colored in Jets green and white. Ticket sales and team webpage hits have set records.
But what does it say about the Jets’ priorities when Favre is paraded in front of New York City at the mayor’s press conference Friday when he could have been in a meeting learning a new offense?
By season’s end, this will be viewed as little more than a terrific publicity stunt by a team forced to share its game-day stadium and back-page headlines with the Super Bowl champs.
Inevitably, New York will not be Favre’s kind of town.
“We all acknowledge and recognize Brett’s greatness and I hope he plays well,” said Joe Theismann, the former Washington Redskins quarterback. “But to me there’s a one percent chance of an upside and a 99 percent chance of a downside.”
Theismann isn’t the only one who has doubts. After talking to NFL executives and scouts, I’m convinced the third-greatest quarterback of all time (behind Joe Montana and John Elway) is headed for an unfortunate season. Not even Favre can go from playing 16 years in a variation of the West Coast offense to mastering a new offensive concept in three weeks.
The foundation of the Packers’ passing offense is precisely timed route running. The receiver is supposed to run 12 yards, come back 2, and be there every time. Sprint, hitch, go, bam! Favre set all the NFL career passing records in part because each time he dropped back, he knew where he was supposed to throw.
By comparison, the Jets’ offense is open to interpretation. It requires more reading of the defenses, by quarterback and receiver, after the snap.
And while there has been a magical, improvisational element to Favre’s game, the Jets” offense will not be suited for the NFL’s all-time leader in interception throws.
“I saw Brett having a better chance at success with Jon Gruden and Tampa Bay,” Theismann said. “This one makes no sense to me.”
Besides, after watching clips of Favre’s first introductory press conference Thursday night, did anyone else get the impression he is far more resigned (if not retired) than excited to be playing for the Jets?
Favre was noticeably hurt at the realization he’s no longer a Packer. He also hinted the only way he was going to overcome his emotional breakup was by getting back at them. Give the jilted legend a chance to go head-to-head, twice a year, and Favre was confident he could take away the Black-and-Blue division title he helped Green Bay win last year, and six times before that.
But Favre was no match for a Packers franchise that is the closest thing the NFL has to the Cubs and Red Sox in universal popularity. Manny wasn’t going to the Yankees or Rays, and the Packers were not about to move Favre to the Bears or Vikings.
Even if Favre brought this on himself by retiring in March — they must not teach the Peter cried Wolf fable to kids growing up in southern Mississippi — I feel bad for him. This couldn’t have been what he had in mind when he decided to unretire. A season with the Jets will not go well for him.
His only chance for a happier, more appropriate, ending is if he comes back to play in 2009, for another team that plays an offense he has already mastered. Still, another prediction.
Mike Klis: 303-954-1055 or mklis@denverpost.com
