WASHINGTON—Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican John McCain in the state-by-state battle for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, flirting with the magic number ahead of their back-to-back nominating conventions.
Many factors, including upcoming debates, could change the dynamic of the increasingly competitive contest over the next 10 weeks.
Still, at this point, both the Electoral College math and the political environment favor Democrats after eight years of President Bush—and that makes McCain’s challenge of keeping Republicans in power even greater.
For now at least, the race is spread over 19 states with toss-ups ranging from traditional powerhouses Ohio and Florida to newly competitive Virginia and Colorado.
“Obama’s in much better shape because he seems to have very good standing in the places that John Kerry won, and very good opportunities in a number of other states that look like they could go to the Democrats,” said Tad Devine, who helped plot Kerry’s state-by-state strategy in 2004 and Al Gore’s in 2000. “McCain’s fundamental problem is there’s only one way home for him—replicate the Bush electoral victory state by state.”
Countering, Sara Taylor, a senior strategist on Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign, argued: “The fundamental truth remains that this race is extremely tight. McCain is in strong position in Ohio and Florida, two states that have been critical for Republican victories, and he’s better positioned today in Michigan than the president was in either 2000 or 2004.”
National polls show a narrowing race with McCain starting to close a summer-long Obama edge. But coast-to-coast surveys aren’t a good predictor of the outcome given that the White House is won one state at a time.
Obama has 14 states firmly in his column and three leaning his way, for a total of 228 electoral votes, while McCain has 17 states in hand with seven angled toward him, for a total of 200 electoral votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists in both parties.
Both candidates are short of the 270 electoral votes needed.
The margin of victory will come from:
—TOSSUPS—Obama and McCain are in tight races in nine states with a combined 110 electoral votes. Obama is making a strong play for Bush-won Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia, while McCain competes fiercely in Kerry-won Michigan and New Hampshire. Two other tossups, Democratic-tipping Wisconsin and New Mexico, could soon move to Obama’s column, while GOP-tilting Florida, where Obama is struggling to gain ground despite spending more than $7 million on advertising this summer, may shift to McCain in the coming weeks.
—LEAN OBAMA—Iowa, where Bush narrowly won four years ago, is arguably the place most likely to switch sides given a strong Democratic tide statewide. Democratic-held Pennsylvania is among McCain’s top pickup targets, and the Republican may compete in Minnesota full-bore if polls tighten following the GOP national convention there next month. Obama’s choice of Sen. Joe Biden as a running mate, with his blue-collar roots, could help the Democrats win those states.
Putting Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty on the ticket also could help McCain. Still, all three states could shift to the toss-up category in the homestretch.
—LEAN MCCAIN—Missouri, a perennial bellwether, could easily tighten and fall out of this category. McCain is up a bit right now. Six other states that for decades have voted Republican—Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota—are in Obama’s sights. He’s running ads and planting staff in them to win or, at the very least, force McCain to spend money defending his turf. Obama took a one-week advertising hiatus in most of those states, and if he doesn’t return to the airwaves, count those states as safe for McCain.
Some states will bounce between “lean” to “tossup” as the campaigns adjust their game plans to ensure victory on Nov. 4.
Both candidates face challenges entering the contest’s final chapter.
A four-term Arizona senator, McCain is fighting to free himself from his association with the unpopular Bush while facing lukewarm enthusiasm among his GOP rank-and-file as most people think the country is on the wrong track. His age—he turns 72 next week—also could be a hurdle.
Obama is struggling to unite the Democratic Party following a divisive primary while trying to reassure skeptics that he—a first-term Illinois senator who is 47, has a foreign-sounding name and would be the country’s first black leader—should be president.
In 2004, Bush and Vice President Cheney won 31 states, for 286 electoral votes, while Kerry and running mate John Edwards prevailed in 19 states and the District of Columbia, for 252 votes. The race came down to Ohio, which put Bush over the top.
To succeed him, Obama needs to hang on to all of Kerry’s states—which won’t be easy—and win 18 more electoral votes.
Obama must either capture an electoral-rich Bush-won state like Ohio, with its 20 votes, or Florida, with its 27 votes, or cobble together victories in a couple of others offering fewer numbers.
That explains why the Democrat is aggressively pursuing states in the West, including high-growth Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, which have a combined 19 votes, as well as traditional GOP bastions in the Mountain West like Montana and North Dakota, with three votes apiece, and in the South like Georgia and North Carolina, with 15 votes each.
McCain, for his part, must triumph in the places where Bush was victorious. That’s also hardly a simple task given that this landscape is awful for Republicans, with the country at war abroad and in economic turmoil at home.
Thus, McCain also must gird himself for a potential loss in one or more of Bush’s states by making serious plays for Kerry states.
The Republican is looking for luck in the vote-heavy Great Lakes region, gunning for Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes, Michigan, with 17, and Wisconsin, with 10. He also may end up competing in earnest in Minnesota, also with 10, later this fall. The four states all were decided by narrow margins four years ago and have thwarted Republicans for decades.
Money could be a significant factor in how the coming months play out.
Obama opted out of the public financing system, freeing him to raise and spend private money. He has used his financial heft to expand the electoral playing field by putting advertising and staffers in historically Republican states that haven’t seen action in decades as well as perennial battlegrounds. He’s emboldened by a boost in Democratic voter registrations, and is using his wealth to try to turn out converts in droves.
McCain, conversely, has decided to accept $84 million in taxpayer money, and its accompanying spending restraints. For that reason and others, he is focusing primarily on traditionally hard-fought states. Still, McCain has help from a well-funded Republican National Committee that is far outpacing its Democratic counterpart.
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EDITOR’S NOTE—Liz Sidoti covers the presidential campaign for The Associated Press and has covered national politics since 2003.
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