Starting pitching
The Angels are unique, conjuring up memories of the Yankees in the mid-1990s. They have baseball’s best record yet don’t have a single strong candidate for the MVP award. Their strength is their pitching. Their starters own baseball’s ninth-best ERA, at 4.14, led by all-stars Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana. Jered Weaver and Jon Garland, who combined for 25 wins, have been exiled to the bullpen. The Red Sox counter with a 4.02 ERA, but it comes with a caveat. Josh Beckett, who strong-armed the Red Sox to the World Series title last season, is battling an oblique injury and won’t pitch until Game 3, likely limiting him to just one start. Jon Lester has conquered cancer, thrown a no-hitter and emerged as one of the American League’s top left-handed pitchers. And no one is a better place right now. Lester was 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 28 strikeouts in September. Edge: Angels
Bullpen
Hard to believe that a team with Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t have a clear advantage, but it’s true. While Rodriguez set the single-season saves record with 62, he was a true specialist. He didn’t work more than one inning all season. Jonathan Papelbon is a horse who had 12 saves of more than three outs. With the schedule generously spaced out, Papelbon could work as his own setup men and still appear in all five games. That would take pressure off the Red Sox’s 23-year-old kid, Justin Masterson, and left-hander Hideki Okajima. The Angels are so deep that former Rockie Justin Speier, one of the game’s highest-paid setup men, is not even expected to crack the roster. Jose Arredondo has aged in dog years at the end of games. Both K-Rod and Papelbon have won World Series rings, so the pressure will be nothing new. Expectations are higher for Rodriguez since he’s expected to leave as a free agent. Edge: Angels
At the plate
Even without Manny Ramirez, the Red Sox feature a meat-grinder lineup. Dustin Pedroia could easily win the MVP, the smallest player to do so since 5-foot-9 Nellie Fox in 1959. The Red Sox are deep but will be diminished if Mike Lowell can’t go because of a hip injury. All the talk about being better without Man-Ram will be put to the test in October. Jason Bay is a nice player who has never performed under the neon lights in the playoffs. Mark Teixeira finally gives the Angels a bodyguard for Vladimir Guerrero, but this could be won with small ball. If Lowell plays, the Angels figure to bunt like crazy. Edge: Red Sox
In the field
For all the talk about the Red Sox’s tree circles, they aren’t an ancient team. They have a nice infusion of athleticism with Pedroia and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Jason Varitek will play a critical role with his ability to soothe the nerves of Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Angels finally are healthy with the return of Erick Aybar and Howie Kendrick. Manager Mike Scioscia is hard on his catchers, leaving little margin for error. Edge: Red Sox
Managers
Terry Francona is the right man for the right team at the right time, not unlike Joe Torre with the Yankees in the late 1990s. Francona creates strong loyalty from his players while managing the daily drama of Red Sox nation with a pulseless manner. Strangely, he’s not under any pressure after winning two championships in four years. Scioscia has a wonderful sense of humor but rules with no-nonsense tact. But Francona has slain more dragons in the postseason. Edge: Red Sox
Key player: Angels 1B Mark Teixeira
What Manny Ramirez is to the Dodgers, Teixeira is to the Angels. He doesn’t have the dreadlocks or baggy pants, just a potent bat the Angels have lacked in recent playoffs. In 54 games with the Angels, he hit .358 with 13 home runs and 43 RBIs. He’s a switch-hitter with power, capable of changing a game with one swing. Like Ramirez, Teixeira will be a free agent at season’s end. He turned down $150 million from the Rangers 18 months ago. That could turn out to be a wise decision if he comes up huge this month, leaving the Yankees, hometown Orioles and Angels in a bidding war for him.
Troy E. Renck’s prediction: Angels in five
