Starting pitching
CC Sabathia carried the Brewers into the playoffs, somehow finding a way to stay strong despite pitching on short rest and running up huge pitch counts. Can he keep doing it? If he can’t, the Brewers have no chance. The 6-foot-7, 290-pound lefty, acquired from Cleveland at midseason, is scheduled to start Game 2 on three days’ rest, leaving him available to come back for a possible Game 5. Yovani Gallardo, 22, gets the call in Game 1 after missing most of the season with a torn knee ligament. He threw four innings Thursday in his first start since May. Right-hander Jeff Suppan was mediocre during the regular season (10-10, 4.96 ERA), but he has a decent postseason track record (5-2, 3.00), so he could be the key as a likely Game 3 starter over David Bush.
The Phillies will go with young lefty Cole Hamels in Game 1. Hard-throwing righty Brett Meyers gets the call in Game 2, followed by the ageless Jamie Moyer, who notched 16 wins this season. Having him tame a rugged lineup dominated by right-handed hitters might be asking too much. Edge: Phillies
Bullpen
The Phillies have a much better closer, and that could be the key to this series. Brad Lidge, with his slider as nasty as ever, went 41-for-41 in save opportunities with a 1.95 ERA. In the setup role, Ryan Madson, armed with a 96 mph fastball and a devastating changeup, is something of an unsung hero. Milwaukee’s bullpen is shaky — at best — especially in the eighth and ninth innings. That’s in large part because Eric Gagne bombed as a closer, and Salomon Torres, who took over the role, did well until September, when he allowed 12 earned runs in just 12 2/3 innings. The Brewers cannot be confident when the ninth inning arrives. Edge: Phillies
At the plate
This is a matchup of big-swinging teams that hit a lot of home runs and also strike out a lot. The Phillies led the NL in home runs (214) and the Brewers were third (198), while neither team finished in the top half in the league in batting average. Philly first baseman Ryan Howard led the majors with 48 home runs and was one of three Phillies to hit more than 30 (outfielder Pat Burrell and second baseman Chase Utley finished with 33 each). Burrell, however, is bothered by a lower back injury and his status is in question after he left practice Tuesday. Milwaukee had five players with 20 or more homers, led by outfielder Ryan Braun (37) and first baseman Prince Fielder (34). The Phillies have much better team speed, led by leadoff man Jimmy Rollins (47 steals). Edge: Phillies
In the field
The Phillies are rock solid up the middle, with Rollins turning miracles at short and Victorino running down balls in center. But Howard is a disaster at first (19 errors).
The Brewers’ defense is suspect at almost every position, but especially on the right side of the infield when Rickie Weeks plays second and Prince Fielder (17 errors) mans first. Veteran Ray Durham could get the call at second for Weeks. Catcher Jason Kendall has thrown out 41-of-96 would-be base stealers. Edge: Phillies
Managers
Phillies manager Charlie Manuel was roasted by hometown media last October when he was outmanaged by the Rockies’ Clint Hurdle. But Manuel knows his team well and got high marks for disciplining Rollins this season. The Brewers’ Dale Sveum got the job two weeks ago when Ned Yost was fired. Edge: Phillies
Key player: Brewers LF Ryan Braun
Braun is emerging as a superstar. The Brewers have power throughout their lineup, but Braun, 24, is far and away their best hitter. He edged the Rockies’ Troy Tulowitzki for rookie of the year honors in 2007 and followed it up this season by leading the National League in extra-base hits. He also led the Brewers in home runs (37) and RBIs (106). He is just the second player in major-league history to hit 30 or more home runs in his first two seasons, joining the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols. His home run won Saturday’s game against the Cubs, and his home run broke an eighth-inning tie Sunday.
Patrick Saunders predicts: Phillies in four games.
