Starting pitching
The statistic strains credibility. The Rays allowed 944 runs last season. This season, they permitted 671. That, more than any other number, explains why Tampa Bay is in the playoffs for the first time. Their starters are nails, a group led by all-star left-hander Scott Kazmir and James Shields. The rotation posted a 3.95 ERA, sixth-best in baseball. Their top five starters won 64 games, and not one is older than 26. Kazmir’s performance is critical. The team feeds off his strikeouts, and he hit the skids in September. The White Sox have conjured up memories of their magical 2005 performance. It has been delivered by some new faces. While Mark Buehrle remains as reliable as an ol’ pickup, Gavin Floyd and John Danks have emerged as trusty gamers. Javier Vazquez has the stuff but doesn’t inspire trust from his manager. Edge: Rays
Bullpen
Deep into July, it appeared the Rays were going to make their fans scream after Tampa Bay lost its exclamation point — closer Troy Percival. Percival believes he’s now healthy and ready to go, though the front office remains concerned about his fastball command. Dan Wheeler steadied the wheel in Percival’s multiple absences, posting 13 saves while holding opponents to a .185 average. The Rays’ other relievers couldn’t be any more anonymous if they were in witness protection. Their effectiveness is stunning: Reclamation projects Grant Balfour and J.P. Howell posted career years, with recent call-up David Price lurking as a secret weapon. Discussion of the White Sox begins at the end, with closer Bobby Jenks. The big boy’s K’s are down, but he brings heat and experience. Matt Thornton is one of the game’s most underrated relievers, and Scott Linebrink, their big offseason signing, has been in more wars than the “300” gladiators. Edge: Rays
At the plate
The Rays are the Los Angeles Angels of St. Petersburg. They don’t have a single .300 hitter, and only one guy with 30 home runs — slugger Carlos Peña. This is a team that does just enough to get by. The Rays rank 10th in home runs in the AL with 180. They rank 13th in runs scored, despite hitting .246 with runners in scoring position. Still maturing offensively, it is a club that relies on the big hit — see Evan Longoria — and will be more versatile if outfielder Carl Crawford returns. You hang ’em and the White Sox bang ’em. The White Sox led baseball in home runs. The Cuban missile, Alexei Ramirez, is arguably their best player right now. Edge: White Sox
In the field
Remember the Rockies’ formula last fall? The Rays are following the same script. They don’t defeat themselves, committing just 90 errors. The acquisition of former Twins shortstop Jason Bartlett can’t be overstated. He has good range and makes all the routine plays. Akinori Iwamura and Longoria provide athleticism. Same goes for center fielder B.J. Upton, his questionable effort at times notwithstanding. Even if Chicago’s Orlando Cabrera isn’t what he once was, he’s still good. Juan Uribe has a shortstop’s glove and rocket arm at third, and nothing fazes Ramirez. The White Sox’s outfielders lack range. Edge: Rays
Managers
Equipped with his Hugo Boss glasses and nutty professor demeanor, Joe Maddon has changed the culture in Tampa. This team, without a doubt, plays with its chest puffed out. Ozzie Guillen has a ring, something that is often forgotten when he’s characterized as a madman. Guillen deflects attention from his team with his outrageous statements. Edge: Rays
Key player: Rays LHP Scott Kazmir
Just 24, the left-hander is the equivalent of Billy Wagner as a starter. Kazmir pitches with attitude and is beyond comfortable at the Tropicana Dome, going 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA. He struck out 13 White Sox in 13 innings this season. The key is keeping the ball in the park. Kazmir surrendered eight home runs in his last three starts. Tampa Bay is not going to slug its way to the American League Championship Series. The Rays need to keep the scores down and their bullpen in line to maximize their strengths. Kazmir sets the tone — one way or the other.
Troy E. Renck’s prediction: Rays in four.
