Big-game managers know with a fair degree of accuracy how many elk roam the mountains and valleys of Colorado, a count that is declining but still remains higher in many areas than the Division of Wildlife might prefer.
What the agency doesn’t know for sure is how many hunters will show up this year and whether final harvest numbers will help it hit what has become a moving population target.
Variables such as the economic downturn and higher gasoline prices cause managers to fret about a potential loss of nonresident hunters counted on both as a prime revenue source and as a key management tool.
Fewer hunters, as was the case a year ago, typically translates to fewer animals taken — a condition that runs counter to DOW’s continuing efforts to reduce an elk herd that in 2007 numbered 292,000 post-hunt, roughly 60,000 over objective.
More than 150,000 of these reside in Colorado’s northwest region, where elk continue to resist hunt-driven depletion in certain key areas. Another 100,000, more or less, are counted in the southwest, where numbers have trended downward of late. Biologists estimate they have trimmed 40,000 animals from the statewide total over the past four years.
In every case, weather remains the greatest determinant of hunter success. Certainly that was the case a year ago, when uncommonly mild conditions thwarted hunters in every corner of the state, sending the harvest spiraling downward. Following what in recent years has become an almost perfect sine wave — up one year, down the next — that number nosedived from 56,933 in 2006 to 49,012 last autumn. The all-time mark, more than 63,000, was recorded in 2004.
For hunters pondering potential, that most recent result is chock-full of good omen.
“We can expect more branch-antlered bulls than last year,” said state big-game manager Rick Kahn, digesting the pure math of the situation.
That cheery news, coupled with that potential for fewer hunters, bodes well for the lucky sports who possess bull tags for the more desirable areas.
This jibes with the observations of Steamboat area biologist Jeff Yost, who counted more mature bulls during his winter survey and hears talk of bigger animals from archers who recently completed their hunt.
Bowhunters recorded mixed results from around the state, generally the result of a lack of moisture during September.
“But I have heard of a lot of nice elk being taken. I think that’s because a lot of bulls made it through the third and fourth season in 2007 because of the dry conditions,” Yost said.
Bruce Watkins, state big- game coordinator, noted that apart from very isolated die-off near the hamlet of Maybell, around Creede and in the upper Eagle Valley, elk mortality appeared at a minimum.
“I expect great hunting for elk. I don’t think winter kill had much to do with elk,” Watkins said.
After sifting through all these elements, of which favorable hunting weather always is paramount, we can predict with a reasonable degree of assurance that the time for record elk harvests is past. DOW has sharply reduced its allotment of cow tags as more and more management units move closer to population objectives.
Some 6,000 fewer elk licenses were dispensed in 2007 than the previous year. The 2008 verdict remains out until those over-the-counter bull sales are tallied at season’s end.
An agency with money concerns will be eagerly watching that part of the cash register drawer, since income from nonresident licenses fuels a significant part of DOW’s budget.
Charlie Meyers: 303-954-1609 or cmeyers@denverpost.com
