NEW YORK — Washington’s financial bailout plan is now law.
So the credit spigot will start flowing again, banks will resume lending, and an economic recovery can begin, right? Wrong. Experts say the most important thing that needs to happen before the $700 billion bailout even has a chance of working: Home prices must stop falling. That would send a signal to banks that the worst has passed and it’s safe to start doling out money again.
The problem is the lending freeze has made getting a mortgage loan tough for everyone except those with sterling credit. That means it will take several months or longer to pare down the glut of houses before home prices start appreciating.
Housing is a critical component to the U.S. economy and by extension the availability of credit. Roughly one in eight U.S. jobs depends on housing directly or indirectly — from construction workers to bank loan officers to big brokers on Wall Street. A turnaround in housing prices would boost confidence in the wider economy and, experts hope, goad banks into lending again.
“Housing traditionally does lead the economy through a recovery. I think it’s going to be critical for a sustained recovery in this cycle too,” said Gary Thayer, senior economist at Wachovia Securities.
The government hopes that by scooping up billions of dollars in bad mortgage debt and other toxic assets, banks can clean up their shaky balance sheets, crack open the vaults and send money washing through the system again.
But several hurdles could trip up the plan. For starters, even when the Treasury starts buying bad assets, some banks may hoard the cash they receive in return until they see how the plan pans out. That has the potential to make the lending logjam worse, said Vincent R. Reinhart, former director of the Federal Reserve’s monetary affairs division.
“They may sit on the sidelines and wait to see (the bailout) get some traction. The problem is if everybody sits on the sidelines, nobody gets in the game. It’s a risk,” he said.
It also creates a vicious cycle: No trust means no lending; tight credit means it’s harder to buy a home; the more difficult it is to buy or sell a home, the further home prices will fall; and the further prices drop, the more foreclosures there will be.
