5 things to watch
1
The deep ball
This could be the week for Jay Cutler to show off that cannon arm he’s so proud of. New England is susceptible to the deep ball, and it’s time Denver started hitting some big plays, especially if speedster Eddie Royal is back in the lineup.
2
Safety swap
Denver appears to be shaking up its secondary and is testing Calvin Lowry at free safety in place of Marlon McCree. The two are about the same size — both are 5-feet-11, Lowry is listed as 4 pounds lighter — but Lowry might be faster. Could come in handy in running down any long plays the Patriots might break.
3
Development of Matt Cassel
The Patriots have kept it relatively simple for Tom Brady’s replacement, which has given them a much different look this year. Slot receiver Wes Welker is the team’s leading receiver, so look for Cassel to continue to try to find Welker on those short, underneath routes.
4
Harass Cassel
With its new 3-4 package, Denver’s pass rush has improved, with five sacks in the past two games. New Eng-land’s offensive line has been less than stellar, and Cassel was sacked four times last week against the Chargers.
5
Ball security
Brandon Marshall has been carrying a football around with him all week, and for good reason. When he and Jay Cutler have hung onto the ball, the Broncos have won. When they haven’t, Denver has struggled to score points. Look to see how tightly Marshall clutches the ball after the catch and if his focus on holding onto the ball affects his yards after reception.
ME PLAN
When the Broncos run
From goal-line back to starter, Michael Pittman, above, became Denver’s first 100-yard rusher last week while the offensive line had its best run-blocking game against the Jaguars, but Denver has not run the ball consistently this season. The Patriots’ run defense is ranked No. 21 in the league, with rookie linebacker Jerod Mayo tied for the team lead with 40 tackles. Edge: Push
When the Patriots run
No New England back has rushed for more than 170 yards total this season, and as a group, the Patriots are averaging only 3.8 yards per attempt. Denver’s run defense at times has seemed stout, yet has been gashed for at least one big run a game. Edge: Denver
When the Broncos pass
At times, Denver has had the most prolific passing offense in the league this year. San Diego exposed the vulnerabilities of New England’s secondary last week, meaning that maybe this is the week Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall get back on track. Edge: Denver
When the Patriots pass
Matt Cassel clearly isn’t Tom Brady, and without Brady, this hasn’t been the same high-powered offense. The Patriots have just three passing touchdowns this year. Denver’s passing defense has given up more than 255 yards per game but has done well against other limited passing teams (Tampa Bay). Edge: Denver
Special teams
New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski (11-of-12) and Denver kicker Matt Prater (13-of-14) have each missed one field-goal attempt this season, and this could be the first cold-weather test for Prater. Edge: Push
THE PICKS
Weekly guest picker (2-4)
Chad Brown, former University of Colorado linebacker
Brown, is living in Highlands Ranch with his family and coaching his 9-year-old son’s tackle football team, after spending 15 years in the NFL, including most of last year with the Patriots. Brown finished his career with 325 tackles, 79 sacks and six interceptions.
Patriots 31, Broncos 28
“They’ll be looking to rebound after last week,” Brown said. “The Broncos defense has improved, but they’re not playing great football right now.”
Jim Armstrong (3-3)
Broncos 31, Patriots 30
Last team with the ball wins.
Lindsay H. Jones (4-2)
Broncos 33, Patriots 30
Don’t know why Mike Shanahan has Bill Belichick’s number, but the spell continues.
Mark Kiszla (3-3)
Broncos 28, Patriots 24
Mike Shanahan owns Bill Belichick. I’d rather own a Chia Pet or an ’85 Yugo or …
Mike Klis (4-2)
Broncos 27, Patriots 24
A decided QB advantage lies with visitors.
Woody Paige (4-2)
Patriots 27, Broncos 24
Broncos have to prove they will win on the road before I will pick them to do just that.
