The Big 12 had good news and bad news when the first Bowl Championship Series rankings came out Sunday. The good news: Three conference schools were ranked in the top six; in the 10 years of the BCS, only one team ranked outside the top six in the first rankings finished in the top two for the championship game.
Now the bad news: All three Big 12 teams are in the same division, and they play each other. Add in No. 8 Texas Tech, and it gets tougher.
Texas (7-0), of course, was a near-unanimous No. 1, with Oklahoma (6-1) No. 4 and Oklahoma State (7-0) No. 6. Oklahoma State’s problem is it visits Texas on Saturday and ends its regular season against visiting Oklahoma on Nov. 29.
“You’ve got to figure when they’re done beating each other up, someone will make it from outside the top six this year,” said Jerry Palm, BCS analyst for .
Texas has a huge lead. In the USA Today coaches poll and Harris poll, which, along with the computers make up the three elements of the rankings, Texas received 162 of 175 first-place votes. No. 2 Alabama (7-0) got seven, No. 3 Penn State (8-0) had five and, shockingly, No. 11 Utah (8-0) received one in the Harris poll.
“Our team continues to get better every week, and I’m really proud of how they handled any distractions the No. 1 ranking and all of the added attention could have presented last week,” Texas coach Mack Brown said in a statement Sunday. “But we have a long way to go and a lot of room to improve. Watching film on Oklahoma State will get your mind off of the ratings in a hurry.”
Fans of Southern California (5-1) should not get excited about earning a No. 5 ranking despite its loss to Oregon State on Sept. 25. The weakness of the Pac-10 will hurt USC’s computer ranking even if the Trojans run the table. They don’t play a ranked team the rest of the season.
In fact, USC dropped from seventh to 10th in the computers after Saturday’s 69-0 drilling of Washington State.
“It will be hard for an 11-1 Big Ten or Pac-10 team to beat out a 12-1 team from the SEC or Big 12,” Palm said.
That’s why Palm’s projection for the BCS Championship game in Miami on Jan. 8 is Penn State and Florida. The Gators (5-1) are ranked only 10th, but their computer rating will improve with wins against No. 7 Georgia on Nov. 1, at No. 25 Florida State on Nov. 29 and possibly in the Southeastern Conference championship game against, probably, Alabama.
“They’re the best team in that league,” Palm said of the Gators. “My faith in them was shaken until they came through and pounded LSU. That’s the team I’ve been high on. They’re the best team in that league and will jump anybody in their way.
“But they’ll need help in the Big 12.”
No. 9 Ohio State (7-1), which USC stomped 35-3 in Week 3, can’t pass the Trojans unless they lose again, but OSU can give a big lift to the SEC and Big 12 by beating visiting Penn State on Saturday. The Buckeyes are a vastly superior team than the one in September, with freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor living up to his billing and tailback Chris “Beanie” Wells finally healthy.
The Nittany Lions haven’t won in seven trips to Ohio State since joining the Big Ten, but on Saturday they ended a nine-game losing streak to Michigan, 46-17.
If these were the final BCS rankings instead of the first, Utah of the Mountain West Conference would automatically qualify for one of the five lucrative BCS bowls. It’s 11th. So would Boise State (6-0) of the Western Athletic Conference. It’s 12th, the cutoff mark for automatic qualification.
Then again, Texas Christian (7-1) would qualify for selection at No. 14. A school from a non-BCS conference can qualify for a BCS bowl if it’s in the top 16 and is ranked higher than the highest-ranked team from one of the six major BCS conferences. Never in the 11 years of the BCS rankings have three schools from one of the five non-BCS conferences made the top 16 in the first rankings.
“TCU even has a loss and can make it,” Palm said. “They’re in good shape.”
However, only one non-BCS team can automatically qualify for a BCS bowl. That puts extra pressure on TCU’s visit to Utah on Nov. 6 and the Brigham Young-Utah showdown in Salt Lake City on Nov. 22 to end the regular season. Boise State has no remaining games against ranked teams but visits San Jose State (5-2) on Friday and hosts Fresno State (4-2) to end the regular season Nov. 28.
Contenders or pretenders?
1. Texas (7-0)
Key game left: Oklahoma State, Saturday
Road to Miami: If Longhorns run the table, they’ve earned it. Four ranked teams, including the Big 12 North champ in the Big 12 title game, await.
2. Alabama (7-0)
Key game: at LSU, Nov. 8
Road to Miami: The SEC’s strength will help the Tide’s computer rankings, and only two road games remain. But ‘Bama might have to beat Florida in the SEC championship game in Atlanta.
3. Penn State (8-0)
Key game: at Ohio State, Saturday
Road to Miami: The Nittany Lions should go 12-0 if they beat OSU but still need Alabama or Texas to lose.
4. Oklahoma (6-1)
Key game: at Oklahoma State, Nov. 29
Road to Miami: Its loss to Texas likely will keep the Sooners out of the Big 12 championship game, which they need to make the jump to the big game.
5. Southern California (5-1)
Key game: Notre Dame, Nov. 29
Road to Miami: No other Pac-10 team is ranked in the top 33 of the Associated Press poll. If Notre Dame (4-2) is 9-2 or 8-3 when the teams meet, it may provide enough pull in the computers to help the Trojans.
