5 things to watch
1 — Is Brad Lidge immortal?
It makes for a better local angle if he becomes a postseason deity, completing a perfect season by securing Game 7 of the World Series. Lidge has converted all 46 of his save attempts this season. If not for Lidge’s loss in the All-Star Game, the Phillies might be opening at home. An unblemished Lidge season is a great story regardless of whether the Phillies topple the Rays.
2 — Can Philadelphia slug out two wins?
That’s all it might take if Cole Hamels pitches as he has in the playoffs. In talking to a handful of Rockies players, they believe Philadelphia’s offense can steal a pair of games. They love the Phillies’ lineup. Philadelphia can beat a team with power and speed. But the home runs will likely drop because of the six-day layoff, placing added importance on Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino creating havoc on the bases, especially on days Hamels isn’t pitching.
3 — Is the Price right?
David Price wasn’t even on the Rays’ roster until mid-September. Now he could be the Series’ most critical figure, closing games for the Rays. He also could be asked to be a left-handed specialist, forced to tame Ryan Howard in a big moment and leave the closing to someone else. Regardless, the pulseless Price has shown he can handle the pressure. That’s a huge asset for a team that has seen reliever Dan Wheeler became more wobbly by the day.
4 — Will the power stay on?
It was not remarkable that the Rays beat Boston — Tampa Bay won the AL East, after all — but how they won was memorable. The Rays pounded out a record 16 ALCS home runs. With his shoulder finally healthy, B.J. Upton has gone nuclear, hitting seven home runs in 11 playoff games after hitting nine during the regular season. Rookie Evan Longoria is the youngest player to hit six home runs in the playoffs. He should be good for at least two in the phone booth that is Citizens Bank Park.
5 — Youth or recess, what’s worse?
The Rays are loose, their Mohawks an overt sign of their camaraderie and sense of humor. But are they just happy to be here? Will the big stage finally make their dimpled cheeks twitch? The Phillies are more mature and can really hit. The six-day layoff, however, could kill their offense, just as it appeared to do to the Rockies and Tigers in recent World Series.
The Matchup
STARTING PITCHING
The Phillies have the Series’ best starter in Cole Hamels, who has compiled a 1.23 ERA in three playoff wins. After Cole, it’s coal in the stocking, with Jamie Moyer a potential easy victim for the Rays. Tampa Bay makes up for its lack of experience with talent and depth. Lefty Scott Kazmir is showing signs of emerging from a late- season funk. He starts the opener, even though he might be the rotation’s fourth-best option. Matt Garza, who won Game 7 against the Red Sox, symbolizes why the Rays are better. He is a muscle pitcher with a terrific sinker. As Garza said Tuesday, if he keeps his fastball down, nobody can hit it out. That’s a huge advantage in the swing game at the miniature golf course that is Citizens Bank Park.
Edge: Rays
BULLPEN
To understand why some believe the Phillies will win this series, start at the end. They are 79-0 when leading after the eighth inning this season. Brad Lidge, Colorado’s own, is a perfect 46-for-46 on save opportunities. Unflappable Ryan Madson anchors a sturdy setup crew. The Rays have a decent bullpen, with one potential problem: Who’s the closer? Is it Dan Wheeler, who is vulnerable to home runs, or rookie phenom David Price? The undefined roles, and Wheeler’s spotty work of late, will likely cost the Rays one game in this series given the Phillies’ battery of reliable pinch hitters.
Edge: Phillies
AT THE PLATE
In what has become a pattern, a World Series team has about a week off. The six-day layoff will disrupt the timing of the Phillies’ hitters, just as it did for the Rockies and Tigers in previous years. It will be up to Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino to help manufacture runs, leaving the team less dependent on the longball. The Rays aren’t as good as they have shown of late, having hit a record 16 home runs in the ALCS. But they mauled Boston’s starters, who are better than what the Phillies have to offer. B.J. Upton looms as the X-factor. If he continues to play like a superstar, it makes Evan Longoria and Carlos Peña even more dangerous in the middle of the lineup.
Edge: Phillies
IN THE FIELD
To help ratings, Fox should televise the “World Series Fastest Man” competition, staging a race among Tampa Bay outfielders Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Fernando Perez. The Rays have range and soft hands. Longoria is a future Gold Glover at third base, and Jason Bartlett is a calming influence for pitchers at shortstop. Only the Dodgers allowed fewer runs this season than the Rays. Philadelphia’s strength is up the middle with Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino. Eric Bruntlett will be a huge improvement over Pat Burrell in left field in the AL park. First baseman Ryan Howard looked shaky in the division series. Look for the Rays to attempt to bunt to him.
Edge: Rays
MANAGERS
The Phillies’ Charlie Manuel is more conventional, a player’s manager with a soft touch. He believes in his guys, but isn’t afraid to get stern when necessary. He’s already getting second-guessed, however, for not bumping Brett Myers back to Game 3 given his appreciably better home numbers. The Rays’ Joe Maddon is part numbers cruncher, part Zen master. He has used random relievers in big situations and has twice won games by having his switch hitters bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers (Mike Mussina and Tim Wakefield).
Edge: Phillies
PREDICTION
Rays in seven.
Starting lineups
Phillies
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF Shane Victorino
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
DH Pat Burrell
RF Jayson Werth
3B Pedro Feliz
C Carlos Ruiz
LF Eric Bruntlett
LHP Cole Hamels
Rays
2B Akinori Iwamura
CF B.J. Upton
1B Carlos Peña
3B Evan Longoria
LF Carl Crawford
DH Willy Aybar
C Dioner Navarro
RF Gabe Gross
SS Jason Bartlett
LHP Scott Kazmir
SERIES SCHEDULE
Game 1
Tonight, 6:35 p.m. @ Rays, KDVR-31
Phillies’ Cole Hamels (14-10, 3.09) vs. Rays’ Scott Kazmir (12-8, 3.49)Game 2
Thursday, 6:29 p.m. @ Rays, KDVR-31
Phillies’ Brett Myers (10-13, 4.55) vs. Rays’ James Shields (14-8, 3.56)
Game 3
Saturday, 6:30 p.m. @ Phillies, KDVR-31
Rays’ Matt Garza (11-7, 3.90) vs. Phillies’ Jamie Moyer (16-7, 3.73)
Game 4
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. @ Phillies, KDVR-31
Rays’ Andy Sonnanstine (13-9, 4.38) vs. Phillies’ Joe Blanton (9-12, 4.69)
Game 5 if nec.
Monday, 6:30 p.m. @ Phillies, KDVR-31
Rays’ Kazmir (12-8, 3.49) vs. Phillies’ Hamels (14-10, 3.09)Game 6 if nec.
Oct. 29, 6:30 p.m. @ Rays, KDVR-31
Phillies’ Myers (10-13, 4.55) vs. Rays’ Shields (14-8, 3.56)Game 7 if nec.
Oct. 30, 6:30 p.m. @ Rays, KDVR-31
Phillies’ Moyer (16-7, 3.73) vs. Rays’ Garza (11-7, 3.90)
