LAS VEGAS — In the last days of the presidential campaign, Republicans and Democrats are walking the precincts here with lists of registered Latino voters who might be the key to victory in the Western battleground states, and this is what they are finding: padlocks on front doors, “bank owned” placards in the yards and, among those still in their homes, growing support for Barack Obama’s promise of change.
The Spanish-speaking canvassers — immigrants or children of immigrants themselves — come face to face with a frayed American dream. Many residents who answer an earnest knock say they have lost their hotel and casino jobs, and are selling their cars while awaiting eviction notices.
“I’m for Obama,” Gustavo Mora, 64, told a Republican campaign worker on his doorstep last week.
“I’m losing my house. That one next door is gone. Across the street, Chinese people bought that house. . . . The economy is so bad, and I am afraid (John) McCain has the same ideas as President Bush, since he’s a Republican too.”
Miriam Mora-Barajas, 26, responded that McCain understands the needs of entrepreneurs such as Mora, who owns two ice cream trucks, and that the candidate opposes raising taxes on small businesses because it means they will have less money to invest.
But Mora said he didn’t have money to invest as it was, and he wondered how he would rent an apartment with a credit record showing he defaulted on his home loan.
“We know Obama is younger and less experienced, but the country needs a change,” Mora said.
Mora’s views are reflected in recent polls that show Latino voters could provide the margin of victory for Obama in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico — states that went for Bush in 2004 and which account for 19 electoral votes. If either candidate sweeps Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, he could win without these Western states.
But if the bigger states are split, each candidate probably would look west to forge an electoral college victory.
The importance of those states was underscored when the McCain and Obama campaigns made stops in New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado from Friday to Sunday.
McCain’s campaign is running a bus tour today in southern Colorado featuring former Colorado state Sen. Larry Trujillo; California state Sen. Abel Maldonado; Silver Salazar of Democrats for McCain; Frank Gamboa, John McCain’s friend and former roommate at the Naval Academy; and Silver Jaramillo, veteran, rancher and a Democrat for McCain.
The William C. Velasquez Institute, a nonpartisan public policy center in Los Angeles, analyzed polling data from the three Western states and Florida. It found that Latino voters provided no advantage to either side in Florida despite long- standing support for the Republican Party by Cuban Americans.
In the Western states, the Latino vote is growing in size and as a percentage of the total, and it is favoring the Democratic Party more than in previous years.
Latinos make up 32.4 percent of registered voters in New Mexico, 11.4 percent in Nevada and 9.9 percent in Colorado.
The institute examined data from eight polling companies and found that Obama’s lead over McCain in Nevada would be 42.4 percent to 40.7 percent without Latino voters — a difference that’s within the margin of error.
Include Latino voters, however, and Obama’s lead grows to 50 percent versus 43 percent for McCain.
That only tells part of the story, according to Antonio Gonzalez, president of the institute. In the last presidential election, 60 percent of Latinos in Nevada voted for Democratic candidate John Kerry and 40 percent for Bush. This time, polls show a 7- to 10-point increase for Obama.
“Two things are happening: The Latino vote is growing, and there’s a bigger margin of support for Obama,” Gonzalez said.
In New Mexico, McCain has a 4-point lead without Latino voters, and Obama has an 8-point lead with the Latino vote. And in Colorado, a statistical tie without Latinos jumps to 51 percent for Obama versus 45 percent for McCain when Latinos are included.
