Brace yourself: America could be hit by a blue tidal wave Tuesday.
The warnings of a Democratic tsunami will come early in the evening if once-red states like Virgina, Ohio, Florida — maybe even North Carolina — start turning Tar Heel blue for Barack Obama.
If so, it will be a historic night for Democrats as voters effectively chuck whatever’s left of Ronald Reagan’s conservative movement onto the great ash heap of history.
It may taste sweet for Democrats that night, but an overwhelming victory could be fraught with peril in the coming years.
If polls heading into the final weekend are accurate and hold, Democrats will win back the White House and increase their numbers in the House and Senate.
In the Senate, the magic number for Democrats is 60. If they reach 60 senators, it effectively takes away the Republican filibuster, meaning it would be easier to approve Democratic legislation. Obama would preside over the most lopsided Democratically controlled Congress since LBJ in 1964.
And therein lies a problem — no matter your political view.
Historically, when one party rules, that party overreaches. Temptation is too great.
When Americans kicked the first George Bush out of office in 1992, Bill Clinton, despite receiving only 43 percent of the popular vote, perceived a sweeping mandate. He quickly pushed gays in the military and government-run health care.
The country, still mostly right of center, pushed back, electing in 1994 a historic wave of Republicans. The giddy GOP hadn’t controlled Congress in 40 years, but with Clinton in the White House, they couldn’t push forward all of their agenda for fear of a veto.
So they often were forced to meet in the middle.
Their stalemates forced the shutdown of the federal government, but ultimately Clinton tax hikes and Republican spending cuts produced a balanced budget, a surplus and a humming economy.
Split government at its finest.
Then, Americans elected George W. Bush in 2000. Even though he didn’t win the popular vote, Bush smelled a mandate, too. He presided over an evenly divided country, yet veered far to the right with a compliant GOP Congress.
He didn’t veto a single bill for years. More spending? Check. Ballooning social programs? Check? War waged on tax cuts? Check. Special deals for K Street lobbyists and crooks? Check.
With one-party rule, Bush and his cronies overreached. Republicans, swimming in scandal, were tossed out in 2006.
Yet today, Americans are again ready to embrace one-party rule. In a Washington Post-ABC News poll released last week, 50 percent of likely voters say they would prefer that one party control the White House and Congress.
If it happens, the question for Obama becomes: Are Americans looking to further the progressive agenda, or have they simply had it with Bush and his big-government, borrow-and-spend buddies?
It’s perhaps a little bit of both.
America is a centrist, if not center-right, country, yet many voters are looking for that proverbial change. How Democrats handle themselves, should they get the keys to Washington, will dictate how long they hold that power.
Obama, to be successful, could use a moderating influence. Strange as it may sound, it could end up being the bad economy, if it forces him to pull back a bit on his agenda. If they start the first 100 days pushing a far-left doctrine — “card check,” the Fairness Doctrine — it could backfire.
Guess we’ll find out in 2010.
Of course, as some have noted this past week, it’s not like there’s a Newt Gingrich out there beating back the blue wave and plotting the next Republican revolution.
Dan Haley can be reached at dhaley@denverpost.com.
