It has been good to be a Democrat in Colorado in recent years. There have been big wins and majorities gained, everywhere from the state legislature to Congress.
It might seem that the state has turned blue for the foreseeable future.
But those who pay close attention to these matters see the potential for clouds on the horizon that Democrats would do well to take note of.
For one thing, impending state fiscal constraints and the overall economy could make it difficult for state Democrats to make good on campaign promises, such as improving education, developing a clean energy economy and taking steps to make health care more affordable.
And they might find themselves facing policy proposals that put them in awkward positions. Those who have helped propel Democrats to power by knocking on doors or contributing money certainly will have expectations, and whether those can be fulfilled without alienating the great electoral middle is an open question.
Furthermore, in two years, they will face midterm elections, which historically have been unfavorable for the party in power.
“I think the Democrats, looking at 2010, should be in survival mode,” said political consultant Eric Sondermann. “They need to continue to come across as centrists. They can’t be seen to be captive . . . of interest groups.”
The stakes are particularly high in the 2010 election because the party in power has the upper hand in the federal redistricting process and the state reapportionment process.
That process sets up legislative boundaries for a decade. If Democrats retain majorities in the legislature and keep the governor’s mansion, they have the ability to draw districts that, within reason, favor their party.
You can bet they will take advantage of that.
They’ll also reap benefits if they continue to field diverse candidates who match the constituencies in their districts.
Pat Waak, Colorado Democratic Party chair, is well into the recruiting process for 2010. Even before the November elections, she was collecting cards and making note of potential talent.
She looks for people who have strong reasons for seeking office. She evaluates whether they’re “authentic” and if they have particular issues they want to pursue. Of course, she looks for skeletons in their past.
But it’s important, she said, that they’ve plugged into local networks and have connections. She wants to know whether they have an idea about what people in the community consider important.
Even some Republicans acknowledge that Democrats have outmaneuvered the GOP when it comes to backing a wide range of qualified candidates who play well to voters. “The Democrats have been masterful in matching candidates to districts,” said Sean Tonner, a GOP consultant.
But now those candidates who have been campaigning on promises of good schools and an economy based on green energy jobs will have to deliver.
Rick Ridder, a political consultant who has worked for prominent Democratic candidates, said so many political ads in this cycle featured wind turbines that it “became the new Colorado state flag.” Ridder said the country’s economic woes, in combination with falling gas prices, could make it difficult for the Democratic majority to convert on promises of a renewable-energy economy.
Gov. Bill Ritter’s administration may find it difficult to continue to persuade renewable energy companies to come to Colorado. Industry analysts say investment in such companies is likely to go down, but to what extent and which sectors will be most affected is yet to be defined.
Furthermore, the strained state budget, which will get worse in 2010 when Referendum C expires, will give Democrats precious little operating room if other, unforeseen problems were to arise.
Referendum C excuses the state from having to make revenue refunds necessary under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights.
On top of that is the credit crunch and the slowing economy, which likely will further diminish state budget revenues. “I’m more worried about their potential inability to solve crises that come forth two years down the road because of the economy,” Ridder said.
Amendment 59, which would have indefinitely extended the Ref C refund timeout, went down in flames at the polls this month. “TABOR mostly upsets the cognescenti in Colorado — the people in office and the people who follow state government closely,” said Bob Loevy, a Colorado College political scientist.
TABOR was a voter-passed initiative. Loevy said he believes sweeping ballot measures may very well continue to pass and pose significant challenges for the Democratic majority.
“In many ways, I don’t think the Democrats’ problems are going to be with the Republicans,” Loevy said. “They’re going to be with the initiatives.”
Initiatives are frequently at odds with other mandates or priorities of government. The classic example in Colorado is the conflict between TABOR (which restricts government revenue) and Amendment 23 (which requires increases in education spending).
Loevy, who calls these measures the “dead hand of the past,” said Democrats will be left to deal with their legacy, and may face other voter-driven mandates.
Democrats may not be able to do much about initiatives, but they should be able to keep themselves on the right track.
State Rep. Terrance Carroll, tapped last week to become House Speaker, said watching Republicans in action during 2003-04 provided lessons about staying focused. He believes their delving into issues such as gay marriage and school prayer was out of the mainstream and contributed to their loss of legislative majorities.
“I won’t allow the House to lose focus on pocketbook issues,” he said, including job creation, education, access to health care, higher education and transportation.
Joan Fitz-Gerald, former state Senate president, also thinks Democratic lawmakers should exercise self-discipline in keeping “bread and butter issues” at the top of their priority lists. “In order for people to believe in government, they have to identify with what you’re doing,” she said. “We still are a fiscally conservative state.”
Tonner, the Republican political consultant, said he wouldn’t be surprised to see the Democratic majorities in the state legislature pass some controversial legislation. Among the constituencies that might seek to push their agendas with a Democratically controlled legislature are labor and teachers unions. That could once again put Ritter in the awkward position in which he found himself in 2007, with a bill changing the Labor Peace Act.
The bill would have made it easier for a union to secure an all-union workplace, and it set off a firestorm of controversy among business advocates. Ritter vetoed the bill, but it served to sharpen divides between labor and business interests.
State Rep. Kathleen Curry, who last week was chosen to be House speaker pro tem, said Democratic leaders first must finely tune their sense of voter priorities. The conversation, said the Gunnison Democrat, invariably reverts to the economy. The state needs to help shore up jobs and create a more favorable economic climate for employers.
Another priority is to attract new jobs and businesses, particularly those that support the new energy economy the state is trying to develop.
But overall, Curry said, an agenda in which policy trumps politics is ultimately the winning strategy. “I think your best chance of holding onto power is to do a good job for voters,” she said. “It’s not about getting power to have it. It’s about solving problems.”
Alicia Caldwell is a Denver Post editorial writer.
