The sheer distance of the blasts began distancing Adam Dunn from his future free-agent pack. Over the past five seasons, he has hit 206 home runs, including one launched in Ohio that ended up in Kentucky.
Yet the Diamondbacks didn’t offer him arbitration, figuring the potential loss of two compensatory draft picks weren’t worth the risk of him accepting a one-year contract.
Blue Jays pitcher A.J. Burnett won 18 games last season, but has never been considered a staff ace. Nevertheless, the 31-year-old free agent has suitors drooling over him, with the Braves the slight favorite over the Yankees to land him because of their recent four-year, $64 million offer with a vesting fifth-year option.
It is through this prism that the double-barreled theme of this week’s winter meetings at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas shows through. There are players whom teams believe can be blue-light specials (Dunn) and those whom teams view as special (Burnett).
Of the 65 players classified as Type A or Type B free agents based on their performance over the past two seasons, only 24 were offered arbitration last week. Among those not on the list: slugger Bobby Abreu, pitcher Andy Pettitte, closer Kerry Wood and Dunn.
Blame the poor economic climate affecting the nation.
“With a diminished market, presumably, there is more temptation for the player to take a one-year, $15 millionish arb deal and try again next year,” Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes said.
Such cases were rubber stamps for years as ways for teams to beef up their draft with more selections. Marquee names laughed at one-year contracts. No longer.
For an industry awash in revenue — $6.5 billion last season, according to commissioner Bud Selig — this is the latest noticeable development that the global financial crisis is having an impact.
“I believe the effects of the economy will be real and widespread,” said Rangers assistant general manager Thad Levine. “That being said, I expect the elite free agents will receive contracts consistent with years past.”
It is shaping up to be a market without a middle class. The stars will get their money, and everyone else will be placed on the clearance rack.
Get beyond the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and Mets, and the belt-tightening isn’t hinted, but overt. Houston is cutting back, which is why it didn’t offer Randy Wolf arbitration and has sent signals it will shop closer Jose Valverde. The Blue Jays aren’t spending as much after losing critical sponsors. The Dodgers are trimming costs, and the Rockies traded well-paid slugger Matt Holliday with no plans on making a big splash in free agency.
“I think if you look at your own personal situation, or if I look at mine, it’s like nothing I’ve seen in my lifetime, and I’m 49 years old. Anybody who thinks what’s happening in the world doesn’t affect our industry is foolish. That’s not reality-based thinking,” Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd said.
“We are not sure where this is going. I don’t know what other clubs are doing, but I know where we are at. And based on the talk of my counterparts within the game this week as we leave for the winter meetings, I sense that they see it that way, too.”
That theory will be tested when the first team goes all in on the first big name. It’s easy to talk calamity and economy until a rival cashes $140 million chips on CC Sabathia — the Yankees, the Giants, the Angels or Brewers — and forces their hand. ESPN baseball analyst Steve Phillips predicted that Burnett’s signing will thaw the ice, serve as a potential angioplasty to a clogged market, if you will. Or perhaps it will be slugger Mark Teixeira signing — the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals and Angels are at the table — that jolts the marketplace.
Most are betting against it. But there’s no better place than Las Vegas to pull up a table and watch it play out.
“Teams are only going to make good business decisions, and 85 to 90 percent of the contracts are three years or less,” agent Scott Boras said. “But when you look at the overall value, players like Teixeira or Manny Ramirez can pay for themselves because of the value they bring to a franchise through network ratings and attendance.”
Troy E. Renck: 303-954-1301 or trenck@denverpost.com
Deep freeze or big thaw?
Equal parts media circus, agents’ convention and hardball business, baseball’s winter meetings begin Monday in Las Vegas. National baseball writer Troy E. Renck examines the top free agents, bargains and trade possibilities:
Marquee names
CC Sabathia, LHP — Has had a six-year, $140 million offer from Yankees since Nov. 14. Hometown Giants a sleeper.
Mark Teixeira, 1B — The Yankees and Red Sox love him. Boston seems like best fit.
Manny Ramirez, LF — Market has been slow. Would he consider going back to Dodgers on one-year, $30 million deal?
A.J. Burnett, RHP — Most popular player on market. Will get five-year deal, likely from Braves.
Francisco Rodriguez, RHP — Price is coming down. Four years, $45 million could get it done.
Rafael Furcal, SS — Market wide open after A’s pull offer.
Best bargains
Randy Wolf, LHP Minimal commitment for a guy who can stabilize a rotation.
Brad Penny, RHP Needs to restore value, and image, after disastrous season with the Dodgers.
Randy Johnson, LHP Five shy of 300 wins. Capable of winning 15 games next season.
Felipe Lopez, SS Would be a nice fit in Baltimore, given his big finish in St. Louis.
Joe Crede, 3B Brings power and a great glove . . . and a bad back.
Trade winds blowing
Jake Peavy, RHP, Padres — The Cubs make the most sense, though they don’t want to give up prospect Josh Vitters. The Padres need a third team involved, likely the Orioles.
Delmon Young, OF, Twins — An intriguing fourth outfielder. The Rockies are among teams monitoring his situation.
J.J. Putz, RHP, Mariners — His availability could impact the number of teams chasing free agent Brian Fuentes.
Jermaine Dye, OF, White Sox — Has 106 home runs over past three seasons. Reds among teams interested.
